Five key developments in international relations this week: 03-07 Mar 2025 🔍🌍

⚔️⚔️SITREP : Sudan conflict

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and allied militias (the Sudan Shield Force and intelligence service elite forces ) have advanced significantly in the East Nile axis, claiming to have seized the entrance to the Al-Manshia Bridge on 03 March, which links Khartoum and the East Nile locality. The SAF’s control of the East Nile district effectively cuts off supply lines and communication between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Bahri and East Nile with Khartoum and favourably positions the army for the complete takeover of Khartoum in the coming weeks. The Armoured Corps released videos showing their proximity to central Khartoum, south of the Al-Hurriya (Freedom) Bridge, suggesting that control of Presidential Palace and Tuti Island was imminent.

In late February, the army regained control of the eastern entrance to the strategically important Soba Bridge, connecting southern Khartoum and East Nile. The SAF is advancing on at least three axes toward central Khartoum to expel the remaining RSF units from the area.

Elsewhere, health officials in North Darfur state reported on 06 March that at least 13,000 people have been killed or wounded as a result of ongoing clashes between the SAF and RSF over the past year. The security and humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate across large areas of the state, especially around El-Fasher, the state capital, which has been under an RSF-imposed siege for almost a year. Both the SAF and RSF have been complicit in targeting camps for displaced people, resulting in massive displacement and compounding an already-grim humanitarian situation.

Sexual violence and use of rape as a weapon of war continues to be a feature of the conflict. The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) reported on 04 March that infants as young as one had been raped by armed men, underscoring the alarming trend of sexual violence. Since the beginning of 2024, 221 rape cases against children have been recorded, though UNICEF stresses that this is likely a small fraction of total cases due to underreporting caused by stigma, fear of retribution, and challenges in accessing services. The fear of sexual violence is driving displacement, with women and girls fleeing to other cities and facing continued risks in informal displacement sites.

On the political front, the Sudanese government filed a case against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 05 March, accusing the UAE of complicity in alleged genocide against the Masalit ethnic group. The complaint alleges that the RSF and allied militias have committed acts of genocide, murder, rape, forcible displacement, and other human rights violations with the "direct support of the UAE," including the supply of weapons and personnel. Sudan claims this support has led to thousands of civilian deaths, the displacement of millions, and widespread destruction. The case is based on Article 36 of the ICJ Statute and Article IX of the Genocide Convention. In response, the UAE has dismissed the case, stating that the allegations "lack any legal or factual basis," adding that it would seek immediate dismissal of the case.

On the prospects for conflict resolution, former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok (who is also the chair of the Civilian Democratic Alliance of Revolutionary Forces; Somoud) made an urgent appeal for a joint UN-AU meeting, in the presence of the commanders of the SAF and RSF, as well as leaders of other key factions (SPLM-N, SLM-AW), and the Civil Democratic Forces. The aim of this meeting is to agree on a humanitarian truce and an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, along with confidence-building measures. These measures include effective ceasefire monitoring mechanisms (potentially a regional and international peace mission), the opening of safe corridors for humanitarian aid, freedom of movement for civilians, safe zones free of military activities, stopping media escalation, and the release of all prisoners and detainees.

Hamdok also called for a comprehensive arms embargo on all parties, drying up war financing, and an international donor conference to address the UN response plan's funding gap. He stressed the need for a Sudanese-led credible and comprehensive peace process with simultaneous and integrated humanitarian, ceasefire, and political tracks. The desired outcomes include a permanent ceasefire, a comprehensive peace agreement, transitional constitutional arrangements, restoring the civil-democratic transition, rebuilding a unified national army away from politics and economics, and establishing a justice and transitional justice process.

Linked to this, the chairman of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council, Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan, stated at the Arab Summit in Cairo on 4 March 2025, that he was willing to cease hostilities under “specific conditions.” His conditions include the withdrawal of the RSF from occupied areas, the lifting of the siege on El Fasher and other cities in Darfur, and the RSF gathering in specific areas in preparation for disarmament.

Looking ahead, while the calls for peace talks and conditional statements of readiness for a ceasefire are positive, the complex dynamics of external interference and the ongoing fighting suggest that a swift resolution remains a remote possibility.

Europe: EU leaders endorse new defence plan, pledge continued support for Ukraine

EU leaders on 06 March endorsed initiatives to ramp up defence spending, including a Commission-Backed plan for the provision €150 billion worth of new loans to Member States for defence investment. The so-called “ReArm Europe Plan, " put forward by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, included a number of proposals: loosening budget restrictions to allow for increased defence funding, activation of the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact to encourage increased public funding for defence at national level, mobilisation of private capital through the Savings and Investment Union and the European Investment Bank, and directing more EU budget funds towards defence-related investments.

The announcement came days after U.S. President Donald Trump paused military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, on the back of an explosive meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky in the Oval Office last week. The meeting, which was intended to finalise an agreement granting the U.S. access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals, escalated into a shouting match with Trump and Vice President J.D Vance berating Zelensky over his stance on peace negotiations with Russia and failure to express gratitude for the U.S’ tremendous support towards his country’s war effort.

The Trump administration has demonstrated a radical shift in its policy towards Russia, signalling a potential détente and normalisation of ties between the two powers. On 18 February, U.S and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia during which they agreed to lay the groundwork for a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration has also reassessed its perception of the war in Ukraine, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently describing the war as a proxy war between the collective West led by the U.S. and Moscow.

These moves by the U.S have raised concerns among European leaders about its dependability as a crucial defence and security partner and thrown the future of decades-long transatlantic ties into question. Hence, the Brussels meeting was convened as response to the reality of waning U.S support and the imperative of scaling up defence spending, underlining a dogged determination to continue providing military and diplomatic support to Ukraine in pursuit of ‘peace through strength’, per a statement signed by 26 leaders. Prior to the emergency summit meeting in Brussels, leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Ukraine met in London on 03 March to develop a four-point Ukraine peace plan for presentation to the United States. The proposal includes continued military aid to Ukraine, Ukrainian participation in peace talks, European deterrence against future Russian invasions, and a European peacekeeping force with British troops.

Despite the rhetoric of unrelenting support, EU leaders failed to agree on a new €30 billion military aid package for Kiev after Hungary vetoed the measure during the Council meeting in Brussels. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a vocal critic of military aid to Ukraine and an advocate for peace talks, rejected the proposal, arguing that it contradicted Hungary’s stance. Orban’s stance reveals fundamental divergences among EU member states in the bloc’s approach towards Russia and the war in Ukraine, amid a changing strategic environment and key policy shifts.

On the eve of the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron floated the idea of extending France's nuclear deterrent to protect other European allies, a move welcomed by Poland and the Baltic nations but dismissed by Moscow as "extremely confrontational." Largely, Macron’s statements indicate his intent to position France as the leader of European defence against Russia, advocating for a European Army and increased military support for Ukraine amid fears of U.S. disengagement. Furthermore, Macron’s assertive stance reflects underlying tensions and competition for leadership within the EU in a changing geopolitical context, particularly between France, Germany, and Poland.

The proposed rearmament plans represent a significant step in the EU’s efforts to bolster its defence capabilities. However, questions persists whether the EU can compensate for a gap left by a disengaging U.S, which has been Ukraine’s biggest military backer since the war began. Up until the announcement the stoppage of military aid, the U.S. had provided more than $180 billion in assistance to Ukraine, including more than $66.5 billion in military aid.

Highlights from opening sessions of China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’

China's annual ‘Two Sessions’ (lianghui), encompassing the concurrent meetings of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), commenced on 04 March. These meetings serve as a vital window into the country's development plans and policy priorities for the coming year.

 I.  Key Economic Targets and Policies

•  GDP Target: China has maintained its GDP growth target of "around 5%" for 2025, signalling confidence despite a challenging global environment. Premier Li Qiang emphasized boosting domestic demand, stabilising real estate, and navigating global trade challenges.

• Monetary Policy: The monetary policy stance has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately loose," with expectations of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts. Maintenance of  the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate remains a priority and devaluation of the currency to help offset tariffs is not anticipated.

•  Employment: Premier Li Qiang vowed to create over 12 million urban jobs in 2025 while aiming to keep the unemployment rate around 5.5%.

• Industry: Beijing announced plans for steel output cuts to address overcapacity, amidst rising global trade tensions. President Xi Jinping stressed the need to integrate technology and industry, upgrade traditional sectors, and boost emerging industries like AI and quantum technology.

•  Foreign trade and investment: In a higher tariff environment, China emphasized the goals of stabilising foreign trade and investment, including expanding cross-border ecommerce and logistics, as well as ramping up construction of warehouses overseas. With respect to investment, the government pledged continued support for the "Invest in China" programme and to improve business environment as a way of encouraging more foreign investment.

 II. Foreign policy

Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a 90-minute press conference on the sidelines of the Two Sessions on 07 March addressing a wide range of international issues. Key takeaways include, inter alia:

• Multilateralism and Global Role: China positions itself as a firm supporter of multilateralism, with Wang Yi stating, "Chinese diplomacy will stand firm on the right side of history and the side of human progress. We will provide certainty to this uncertain world."

• Diplomatic Budget: China's foreign policy budget has increased by 8.4%, signalling a stronger global push, particularly in diplomacy, Belt and Road projects, and ties with the Global South. This contrasts with the U.S’ America First approach which has been perceived as largely isolationist.

• China-Russia Relations: The "historical logic of China-Russia friendship will not change," according to Wang Yi, who described their relationship as "mature and resilient" and a "stabilising force in the world."

•  China-US Relations: Wang Yi emphasised "mutual respect" as the basic principle for state-to-state relations and warned that "no country should fantasise that it can suppress China and maintain good relations with China at the same time."

• Global South: The Global South is seen as a "key force for maintaining world peace, driving world development and improving global governance." Wang Yi affirmed that China's "heart will always be with the Global South."

⚡Flashpoint

Venezuela-Guyana tensions escalate over megaproject in disputed Essequibo territory

Venezuela's Navy and Guyana have clashed over naval patrols in contested waters, escalating tensions in their long-standing Essequibo territorial dispute. On 01 March, Venezuelan coast guard vessels entered Guyana’s waters near Exxon Mobil Corp.’s offshore drilling site, spurring Guyanese President Irfaan Ali to deploy the country’s naval and air forces to defend the oil megaproject. Guyana also alerted its international allies, including the U.S. about the incident, prompting condemnation of Venezuela’s actions.

The Venezuelan government has denied accusations of violating Guyana’s maritime territory, claiming that its patrol ship was operating in what it described as “disputed international waters.” The U.S. State Department warned against any further encroachment, noting that Further provocation will result in consequences for the Maduro regime.

At the core of the dispute is the Essequibo region, a mineral-rich area that constitutes two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and the site of offshore oil reserves which Exxon Mobil began drilling in recent years. Venezuela has long claimed ownership of the region, alleging that a boundary commission from the 19th century unlawfully granted the land to Britain, and later to Guyana when it gained independence from the UK in 1966. The century-old conflict is the subject of an ongoing case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), but a final decision is still pending.

The strong reaction from the U.S. underscores the international interest in the region, especially given the significant oil reserves. Guyana, with its limited military capacity, is relying heavily on international law and the support of its allies.

💠 Germany’s foreign policy

Incoming coalition government announces major shifts in defence and fiscal policy

The leaders of the conservative Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who are likely to form Germany’s incoming coalition government, announced plans for massive overhaul of fiscal and defence policy on 04 March.

On fiscal policy, the CDU/CSU and SPD leaders agreed on a special fund for infrastructure investments of €500 billion over the next ten years. Additionally, Chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, announced an agreement to change the fiscal debt brake to allow for higher defence spending. Specifically, defence spending of more than 1% would be exempted from the debt brake. In total, the multi-year spending plans on infrastructure and defence are estimated at €1 trillion, which could see Germany's deficit widen by up to 2.5% of GDP, which is still below the EU average.

The proposed overhaul of the policy around the debt brake, a constitutionally-enshrined proviso which limits Germany's structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP, represents a radical shift of the country’s reputed cautious fiscal policy. The rationale for the shift is lingering uncertainty over America’s future support for European security, and the urgent need to strengthen Germany's military (the Bundeswehr).

As Europe’s largest economy, the policy shift in Berlin also has implications for the EU, particularly the push to exempt defence spending from the bloc’s debt and deficit limits. The change in course by Germany, which has historically opposed relaxed spending rules within the EU, could put it on a collision course with traditionally frugal Northern European countries, such as Austria, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Denmark who are wary of increased spending.

The CDU/CSU and SPD aim to use their "old" parliamentary majorities (potentially with the Greens) to secure an agreement on the infrastructure fund and debt brake changes in the next week. However, there is potential opposition from the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) who are unlikely to back a reform of debt rules. There is also strong resistance to debts and deficits within Merz's own party, which has a long-standing conservative fiscal tradition.

Financial markets signalled an initial positive reaction to the news of the planned fiscal changes and debt brake reform – the German DAX index increased by 3%, yields on 10-year bonds in Germany rose by over 25 basis points, and European defence stocks also surged considerably.

Iran's military has been actively showcasing and testing a wide array of new weaponry, including missiles, drones, and air defence systems, in large-scale exercises over the past three months. The exercises – codenames ‘Eqtedar’, ‘Zolfaqar’ and ‘Great Prophet’ – commenced in late December and  are aimed at enhancing both defensive and offensive capabilities of the armed forces. Among some of the advanced weaponry on display were a range of ballistic and cruise missiles, domestic and imported fighter jets and missile defence batteries, including the Russian-made S-300. Overall, the exercises highlight Iran’s posture of defiance and a commitment to strengthening its military in the face of external pressures and regional tensions.