Five key developments in international relations this week:19-23 Jun

Sudan: grim outlook as mediation efforts falter

Fighting resumed in Sudan on 21 June after the expiration of a 72-hour ceasefire that came into effect on 18 June. The temporary lull in fighting, which was mostly intended to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid and safe passage for civilians, was the result of talks being facilitated by the US and Saudi Arabia.

The bloody fighting across the country that began on April 15 is the result of a politico-military clash between two of the most powerful military factions in Sudan –the Sudanese Armed Forces led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) headed by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. According to various local reports, at least 2000 people have been killed and over 2 million displaced as a result of the fighting.

Despite a plethora of diplomatic initiatives to end the conflict, the fighting has raged on with reports of heavy shelling and artillery strikes centred around Khartoum, Bahri and Omdurman.

Worryingly, on 21 June the US decided to end its participation in mediation efforts due to continued violations of ceasefires by conflict parties, in addition to disagreement about format of the talks. In addition to the US-Saudi initiative, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) on 12 June adopted a new roadmap for peace in Sudan whose action plans include the deployment of a quartet of four heads of states (Kenya, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Djibouti), led by Kenyan president William Ruto, to engage with the conflict parties in Sudan. Shortly after IGAD’s announcement on 15 June, Sudan formally declined Kenya’s leadership of the IGAD Quartet, accusing the latter of lacking neutrality with respect to the parties involved in the party.

For its part, the AU put forward the Expanded Mechanism to serve as the main platform to coordinate and consolidate international responses towards the conflict, following a High-Level meeting convened under the auspices of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on 20 April.

Overall, the recent developments centred around mediation efforts highlight challenges relating to coordination, neutrality and leverage. Mediation is a complex process that demands application of skill, foresight and strategy. Regional and international stakeholders engaged in various mediation efforts should be wary of the seven deadly sins of mediation as asserted by Lakhdar Brahimi and Salman Ahmed, which include, haste, partiality and inflexibility, among others.

Mali : MINUSMA’s woes

In the latest manifestation of the backlash against Western military presence in the Sahel, Mali’s ruling junta on 16 June called for the immediate withdrawal of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), “without delay”. The Foreign Affairs Minister Abdoulaye Diop reportedly told the U.N. Security Council that MINUSMA had become part of the worsening security situation by fuelling inter-communal tensions and exacerbating a crisis of confidence between Malian authorities and MINUSMA.

MINUSMA was established in 2013 in response to an insurgency led by jihadist and separatist groups. The mission’s initial mandate focused on stabilising key population centres and supporting the re-establishment of state authority throughout the country. Following evolving security environment, including resurgent jihadist violence, a series of mandates have made MINUSMA’s mandate more robust over the years, including aspects such as protection of civilians and ensuring the safety and security of UN personnel.

MINUSMA’s emphasis on protection elements of its mandate, coupled with the worsening jihadist threat have cast serious doubts over its effectiveness, compounded by its reputation as the UN’s most dangerous peacekeeping mission. This has also led to shrinking support for the mission in recent years, evidenced by a series of withdrawals or declarations of intent to withdraw by several troop contributing countries since 2022. Most notably, France withdraw its 2,400 troops during August 2022, effectively bringing an end to Operation Barkhane which had played a key role in counter-terrorism activities since 2013.

Tensions between the ruling military junta and the troop contributing countries have added to MINUSMA’s woes. The junta has restricted access, curtailed mobility, and suspended rotations of UN peacekeepers making it even more difficult for the mission to fulfil its complex mandate. The junta has also entered into a partnership with the Russian Wagner group, further diminishing commitment by troop contributors.

Overall, the latest development is indicative of trends in UN peacekeeping with a bearing on the cardinal principals of impartiality, non-use of force and host-state content. For instance, in the DRC, the UN peacekeeping force, MONUSCO, has also been faced with protests and mounting calls for its withdrawal. The evolving threat environment across conflict theatres also raises pertinent questions about impact, operational efficiency and complex relationships between various stakeholders in peacekeeping: the UN, troop contributors and host-states.

The Summit for a New Global Financing Pact was held in Paris on 22-23 June, spearheaded by Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley and French President Emmanuel Macron. The summit was aimed at addressing key issues at the heart of international development, including reform of multilateral development banks, debt crisis, innovative financing and international taxes, special drawing rights (SDRs), among others. The four main objectives of the Summit were: (i)restoring fiscal space to countries facing short-term difficulties, especially the most indebted countries (ii) fostering private sector development in low-income countries (iii) promoting investment in "green" infrastructure for the energy transition. in emerging and developing countries and (iv) mobilize innovative financing for countries vulnerable to climate change.

Broadly, the Summit brings together several agendas (climate, development, debt) with the goal of putting forward innovative solutions to multi-dimensional crisis that are linked to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russo-Ukrainian war and climate change.

Over 50 world leaders attended the gathering, including 13 African heads of states and officials, alongside heads of international financing institutions, multilateral development banks, and representatives from civil society and the private sector.

PM Mottley has been at the forefront in advocating for a reform of international financing for countries most vulnerable to climate change, best encapsulated by the Bridgetown Initiative, first championed at the COP27 gathering. In essence, the Bridgetown Initiative calls for a restructuring of international financing for countries most-affected by the climate crisis through a series of actions such as additional funds for climate resilience, a review of debt terms in the midst of natural disasters and the establishment of a fund for climate mitigation and reconstruction after a climate disaster.

The Summit has been hailed as a key step in bridging the gap between the Global North and Global South with regards to issues of international financing for climate change, while also doubling the momentum for realisation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The Global Humanitarian Assistance report was released on 20 June by the UK-based analysts Development Initiatives. The report is an annual assessment of trends in humanitarian need and crisis, humanitarian funding.

Key highlights from this year’s report include:

• Gap between needs and resources is a wide as ever: Humanitarian funding from public and private sources reached a record $47 billion last year, But humanitarian needs also spiralled, leaving a $20 billion shortfall for UN-backed humanitarian appeals.

• Complex, protracted crises are increasingly the norm, continuing to heap more pressure on the humanitarian system. Crises range from prevalent system-wide shocks, including climate change and the war in Ukraine, and new and escalating crises, such as the devastating earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria and the worsening conflict in Sudan.

•  Funding base for international aid sector remains largely unchanged: the United States, Germany, and the EU – accounted for nearly two thirds of all international humanitarian assistance from public sources in 2022, with the US alone providing 39%.

•  Where did international humanitarian assistance go?: The largest recipient of humanitarian funding in 2022 was Ukraine – receiving the highest volume of contributions ever recorded in one year (US$4.4 billion). 10 Countries received 63% of total humanitarian assistance funding in 2022 with (Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria and Ethiopia) receiving more than US$2 billion each.

• Main action points looking ahead: establishing humanitarian funding targets to encourage more equitable burden sharing, strengthening efforts for system-wide reforms, for instance by identifying more effective local funding solutions, ensure access to flexible, multi-year funding, and mobilising funding for anticipatory action and additional climate finance.

US-China: Blinken visit to Beijing

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was on a visit to China for meetings with President Xi Jinping, Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Wang Yi, and Foreign Minister Qin Gang from 18-19 June. It was the most senior visit by a US official since 2018. See the US State Department’s readout of the meetings is here, and the Chinese readout

The meeting was described as cordial by several commentators, although expectations had been set pretty low right from the start. While the discussion was largely couched within the broader context of a toning down of tensions between the two great powers, key issues such as military-to-military communications and strengthening people-to-people exchanges between students, scholars, and business were also discussed.

Interestingly, the visit was clouded by remarks by US President joe Biden in which he referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “dictator” at a political fundraiser on 20 June, drawing an angry response from Beijing which characterised them as “extremely absurd and irresponsible.”

Modi visit to Washington

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Washington D.C from 21-23 for a visit that although framed as a regular bilateral engagement, attracted wide international coverage particularly given questions about thorny issues such as the China question within the ambit of New Delhi and Washington’s partnership, as well as India’s neutral position with regard to the Russia-Ukraine war.

In a joint statement released on 22 June, the two countries affirmed the strength of their relationship, anchored on the U.S.-India Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership that informs cooperation across the political, trade, defence and technological spheres. Security and defence cooperation have been a main pillar of cooperation under the Modi administration with the US accounting for 11% of India's import, third behind Russia and France. In technology, the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) was launched in January 2023 as a key mechanism for collaboration in the fields of artificial intelligence, quantum, cyber, 6G, semiconductors, space, defence, biotechnology, advanced materials, and rare earth processing technology.

The relationship is not devoid of tensions, particularly Washington’s displeasure about India’s neutrality with respect to the Russia-Ukraine war, alongside booming Russia-India trade which has seen Delhi double its imports of Russian oil reaching up to 1.96 million barrels a day in May. For its part, India was riled by USD 450 million deal for sale of F-16s to Pakistan by the U.S in 2022, voicing concerns about the potential use of the fighter jets against it in the event of  military confrontation with Pakistan.