Five key developments in international relations this week: 26-30 June 🔍🌍

SITREP: Sudan conflict

Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) headed by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo continued on 28 June. The violence, mostly centred around the capital Khartoum, and its neighbouring cities of Bahri and Omdurman, raged on despite the declaration of a 24-hour ceasefire for the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha. The Sudanese armed forces conducted airstrikes targeting recently-established RSF positions in the Mansoura, Mohandessin, and Al-Fatihab areas south of Omdurman. This followed days of intense fighting last week which resulted in the capture of the Central Reserve Police headquarters in Khartoum by the RSF on 26 June, with the violence resulting in at least 14 civilian casualties.

Apart from the Khartoum and its vicinities, violence has also been reported in recent weeks in the Darfur region where the RSF and allied Arab militias have targeted civilians fleeing El Geneina towards the Chadian town of Adre. Tensions have heightened following the killing of the governor of West Darfur, Khamis Abakar, on 14 June by gunmen suspected to belong to the RSF. Moreover, the spillover violence in the Darfur regions has re-awakened concerns about a recurrence of inter-communal clashes and fighting that could escalate to a scale reminiscent of the 2003 genocide which occurred during the regime of ousted long-ruling dictator, Omar al-Bashir.

On 27 June, General al-Burhan gave a speech in which he called on youth to join the army in what he framed as “a battle for the survival of the Sudanese state.” It is not immediately clear whether there is massive popular support for either military faction among a war-weary Sudanese population who continue to bear the brunt in what seems to be prolonged bloody war with no clear end in sight.

⚔️Russia-Ukraine war

Copenhagen meeting builds on momentum for peace option

Senior officials from Ukraine, the European Union, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey and the G7 countries held a meeting on 24 June in Copenhagen, Denmark to discuss key points that some hope would form the basis for a peace formula, building on broadly agreed principles of the UN charter and international law. The meeting took the form of a consultation rather a formal summit, meaning that no communique or outcomes were expected from it.

Earlier in May, Denmark had indicated its willingness to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, a few weeks before Ukraine was set to begin its offensive in June.

Unsurprisingly, media coverage at the weekend (24-25 June) was dominated by developments surrounding owner of the Wagner Group private military firm, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempt to march on Moscow to demand the removal of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff. In a bizarre twist of events, reports late on 25 June indicated that the so-called mutiny had been aborted and that Wagner forces were withdrawing from Russian territory following an agreement on terms between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership, negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Meanwhile, on the battlefront, Ukrainian attacks during the week centred around Russian positions in South Donetsk, Krasny Liman and Kupyansk directions. Broadly, the fighting has settled into a war of attrition as Ukrainian offensive operations, backed by an array of Western weaponry, continue to face formidable resistance by Russia’s superior airpower and military advantage on the artillery front. Despite being in its early stages, the slow start demonstrated by the Ukrainian counteroffensive has fuelled doubts among its Western backers about the feasibility of their long-term financing, military assistance, training, and intelligence assistance. There is growing demand among Kiev’s backers to see some results on the battlefield in terms of realising strategic objectives. At stake also is Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership, which will be a major topic of discussion in the alliance’s summit set to take place on 11 and 12 July in Vilnius, Lithuania.

Sierra Leone

Election officials announced on 27 June that incumbent Julius Maada Bio of the ruling People’s Party (SLPP) had won the presidential seat with 56.17 percent votes, ahead of opposition All People’s Congress (APC) candidate Samura Kamara, who garnered 41.16 percent votes. The elections held on 24 June reportedly saw a relatively high turnout, reaching over 90 percent in some districts. Shortly after the announcement, Kamara issued a statement rejecting the results, citing lack of transparency in the tabulation process. Kamara’s concerns mirrored that of the European Union Election Observation Mission which in a statement highlighted “statistical inconsistencies" and notable discrepancies in the number of average valid votes per polling state". There were also reports of violence by security forces at the APC headquarters in Freetown on 24 June in which one person was killed and several others wounded. Additional reports also flagged violent incidents in six regions, including the use of live ammunition in three districts.

As of 28 June, calm was reported in major cities across the country as citizens went about their business. Overall, the developments in Sierra Leone are reflective of a pattern in most African countries during election season. Despite an air of unease and fear of post-electoral violence, the electorate turns out to vote in what they see as an opportunity to participate in the democratic process. The losing party questions the integrity and transparency of the process and in some cases, is followed by mobilisation of supporters for demonstrations. While this is part and parcel of the process and politics of electoral democracies, what stands out are the repeated incidences of electoral malpractices which, if left unaddressed, could have a negative impact on the overall integrity and quality of elections in the long term.

 Guatemala

The first round of the Guatemalan presidential election on 25 June ended without any candidate securing over 50 percent threshold, setting the stage for a runoff election on 20 August. The surprise of the day was the emergence of Bernardo Arévalo of the centre-left Movimiento Semilla political party as a front-runner alongside former First Lady Sandra Torres of the centre-right National Unity of Hope (UNE) party. Arévalo, an academic, former diplomat and son of late former president Juan José Arévalo Bermejo, had been dismissed by many as a political upstart who had little chance in a hotly contested presidential race with 22 candidates.

Reflective of broader discontent with the status quo among the Guatemalan electorate, nearly a quarter of ballots cast were spoilt or blank, and turnout was estimated at around 59 percent. Ahead of the elections, three candidates were disqualified from the ballot on uncertain grounds.

Looking ahead, Arévalo – who is campaigning on an anti-corruption and economic reform platform is going to run up against an establishment machinery with considerable leverage over state institutions, including the legislature, judiciary and the military. The prospects for a win over Torres hinge on not only the backing of the critical urban vote, but also on a free and fair process that is devoid of manipulation by elite powerbrokers and compromised officials. If the outcome of the first round is anything to go by, the upcoming runoff is far from being a foregone conclusion and surprises may as yet abound.

Summer Davos in Tianjin, China, 27-29 June

The World Economic Forum's (WEF) 14th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as the “Summer Davos Forum” or “Davos-lite” took place in the northern port city of Tianjin, China, 27-29 June. Chinese Premier Li Qiang gave the keynote address to 1,500 participants from over 90 countries, including government officials, business sector and civil society, academia and international organizations. The theme for this year was "Entrepreneurship: The Driving Force of the Global Economy," and discussions focused on six key issues: rewiring growth; China in the global context; energy transition and materials; post-pandemic consumers; safeguarding nature and climate; and deploying innovation.

Among some of the notable participants was New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins who signed agreements with China to deepen cooperation across a number of sectors such as e-commerce, the green economy, agriculture, and to establish a dialogue mechanism on new energy vehicles. Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Amor Mottley, Prime Minister of Mongolia Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene, Prime Minister of Vietnam Pham Minh Chinh, and the Director-General of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala were also in attendance, as well as high-level delegation from Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia sent a particularly large 24-member delegation comprised of government officials and prominent business figures, led Economy and Planning minister, Faisal Alibrahim and Information Technology minister, Abdullah Alswaha. This is significant in light of thriving Saudi-China relations in which Saudi Arabia stands out as China’s second-largest oil supplier (after Russia) while China is Saudi Arabia’s top trading partner.

In his speech, Premier Qiang challenged the West’s push for “de-risking”, characterising it as a “false proposition” in the context of interconnected globalized economy. He underscored the importance of communication and exchange especially in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic which had exposed the range of barriers to cooperation in the face of transnational challenges and global crises. He echoed President Xi Jinping’s vision of a community with a shared future for mankind, underpinned by values such as communication, cooperation, peace, and openness. On China’s economic outlook, he affirmed this year’s projected economic growth target of around 5 percent with a view to the country serving as a key driver of stable growth and recovery in the global economy, while upholding the market economy, free trade and economic globalization.