Five key developments in international relations this week: 21 – 25 Aug 🔍🌍

SITREP : Sudan conflict

Clashes between Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued over the past week in Khartoum as the warring factions battled for control over the Armoured Corps base located in the southwest of the city. As per reports on 22 August, RSF troops claimed to have overrun the base and captured dozens of tanks, armoured personnel carriers although army sources said that they had repulsed the attack on the tank unit.

Fierce fighting was also reported in the neighbourhoods of Al Shajara and Jabra, resulting in an unconfirmed number of casualties. In a notable development, army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, visited the Wadi Sedna base in northern Omdurman on 24 August, making his first public appearance outside General Command since the war began. Burhan also visited Atbara in River Nile state and Port Sudan in Red Sea state. From there, army sources said that he will embark on a tour to Saudi Arabia and several neighbouring countries to hold discussions on options of ending the war. Elsewhere, in Nyala, South Darfur state, RSF-SAF clashes have continued to fuel mass displacement of civilians. According to the UN, at least 50,000 have fled their homes in Nyala as a result of the violence.

Regarding peacemaking efforts, the African Union (AU) announced on 22 August that a dialogue between Sudanese stakeholders, including representatives from civil society. political grouping and armed groups would take place in September. Further details regarding this meeting have yet to be provided. The meeting, intended as a preliminary discussion, forms part of implementation of the AU Roadmap for the Resolution of the Conflict in Sudan, adopted in May this year. On top of the immediate priority of securing a cessation of hostilities, the Roadmap called for an inclusive Sudanese-owned process that would lead to restoration of civilian rule under a democratic, civilian-led government. The AU Roadmap is one of several initiatives aimed at ending the war in Sudan. The US and Saudi Arabia have facilitated several ceasefires during May and June but none have taken hold. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in June formed a Sudan Quartet (Kenya, South Sudan, Djibouti, and Ethiopia) to address the crisis, but the SAF has failed to attend meetings and has rejected Kenya’s chairship of the Quartet. Egypt also organised a summit in mid-July that that brought together leaders of Sudan’s neighbouring states. The Egyptian-led initiative further established a ministerial mechanism comprised of the foreign ministers of Sudan’s neighbouring states to coordinate conflict resolution initiatives. Overall, despite the plethora of mediation initiatives, the realities on the ground point to pursuit of military victories by the conflict parties, and prospects for a negotiated settlement remain grim in the immediate term.

NIGER: aftermath of the coup

The AU on 22 August suspended Niger’s membership following the military coup that took place last month. In a communiqué issued by the PSC following its meeting on 14 August, the continental body condemned the coup but stopped short of outrightly backing the decision by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to deploy its standby force, calling instead for “an assessment of the economic, social and security implications” of such action. Amid heightened tensions in the region, there are positive signs that the Nigerien junta would remain open to dialogue after its meeting with an ECOWAS delegation on 20 August. The military leadership’s proposal of a three-year transition has been rejected by ECOWAS, which has continued to press for a swift restoration of civilian rule.

On 25 August, the ruling junta ordered the French ambassador, Sylvain Itte, to leave the country within 48 hours. Per a statement from the foreign ministry, the decision to expel Itte was attributed to his refusal to respond to an invitation to a meeting with Niger’s minister of foreign affairs on Friday. The decision comes in the wake of deepening hostility between Niger and France, its former colonial power, which has also maintained troops in the country as part of ongoing operations against jihadist militant groups in the Sahel region. The military junta has also accused France of gunning for military intervention to be fronted by ECOWAS. The looming threat of intervention, at the behest foreign powers, has prompted the Nigerien military junta to maintain a high state of readiness that would enable its forces to respond adequately in the case of an attack and to “avoid a general surprise.” In a related development, junta leader, Abdourahmane Tiani, signed executive orders authorising Mali and Burkina Faso to intervene in Niger’s territory in the event of aggression. Both of these countries have voiced their support for the military leadership in Niamey and have promised to back the country against any potential use of force led by ECOWAS.

15^th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg

The 15th BRICS Summit took place in Johannesburg, South Africa from 22-24 August. In attendance were South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (chair of the grouping in 2023), President Xi Jinping of China, Brazil's President Luiz Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Russian President Vladimir Putin participated in the summit virtually as he could not attend in person due to a warrant for his arrest issued by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. In his stead, foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov led the Russian delegation. Over leaders from Latin America, Asia and the Caribbean also attended the summit, including more than 30 heads of state and government from Africa.

The summit was held under the theme “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism,” however, a major topic of discussion was the issue of expansion of membership in view of growing interest in the grouping – more than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS and 23 have formally asked to be admitted. Another major topic of discussion was the greater use of local currencies in international trade and financial transactions among BRICS countries as well as their trading partners. The summit concluded with the adoption of the Johannesburg II Declaration which highlighted issues such as the call for fairer, representative and inclusive multilateralism, macro-economic policy coordination, food security, cooperation on counterterrorism initiatives, and enhanced cooperation between BRICS and Africa in efforts centred on integration and operationalisation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, among others.

Perhaps the most significant outcome from this year’s summit was the invitation to six countries to join the BRICS as new members – Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This development lends credence to the growing perception of an expanded BRICS as an emblem of the emerging multipolar world characterised by the existence of multiple centres of power in the global order. This stands in stark contrast to the unipolar, Western-led order in which the US has played a key role as hegemon for decades. By some accounts, the matter of membership expansion was no easy task as prior to the summit there was no codified criteria or guidelines relevant to the process of admitting new members. Indeed, discussions on an admission framework seemed to have dominated talks behind closed doors among the five members throughout the summit, leading up to the announcement on the final day.

As a grouping, the core BRICS countries collectively  hold significant clout in the global arena accounting for 40% of the global population, 25% of global GDP, 30% of the global land mass and around 20% of global trade. With the addition of the new members, these shares are projected to increase to about 30% of global GDP and 46.5% of the world population. Moreover, the addition of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are leading oil and gas exporters, is set to bolster the energy dominance of the grouping, with significant implications for the petrodollar. The prospects for an expanded and robust BRICS are also linked to broader debates about de-dollarisation and growing challenge to the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy. Although there has been a growing momentum towards use of local currencies, including pricing of oil exports in non-dollar currencies by suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, analysts predict that de-dollarisation is still a long way off given the pre-dominant status of the dollar in trade, assets and liabilities.

Overall, the BRICS summit stood out as not only a qualified success for South Africa’s diplomatic standing given the thorny issues that were up for consideration. Furthermore, the expansion of the group is a key geopolitical moment for the current world order in light of evolving dynamics pertinent to the redistribution of power, structural change and contestations across the political, economic and ideological dimensions.

G3 Climate summit – Kinshasa

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi hosted his Brazilian counterpart, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Indonesia’s Joko Widodo in Kinshasa DRC on 25 August for a trilateral climate summit. The DRC-Brazil-Indonesia summit brings together the three countries, representing the Congo basin, the Amazon rainforest, and the Borneo-Mekong basin, respectively. The main focus of discussions was on deepening cooperation on key policies central to the protection of rainforests, as well as coordination in view of implementation of broader climate action goals in service of not only their own populations, but also for humanity as a whole.

The summit in Kinshasa is the part of a series of initiatives in the lead up to COP28 climate talks in December. African stakeholders have also sought avenues for greater assertion of agency in order to present Africa as an active contributor to collective solutions in the climate action agenda, rather than as a victim or bystander. A significant event in this regard is the Africa Climate Summit which will take place in Nairobi, Kenya from 04-06 September. Co-hosted by the African Union Commission and the Government of Kenya, which seeks to advance a unified African position on climate and financing issues. The event is expected to bring together leaders from governments, businesses, international organizations and civil society to discuss key themes of adaptation and resilience, renewable energy, sustainable development, and financing for climate action. On top of the key priority of advancing a green growth agenda for Africa, other envisaged outcomes from the summit include the adoption of the Nairobi Declaration outlining a common vision for green growth and climate financing agenda for Africa, unlocking of financing instruments by investors and increased investment commitments on the continent across a range of sectors.

Bernardo Arévalo of the centre-left Movimiento Semilla political party won the presidential vote in a run-off election held on 20 August. Arévalo garnered 58% of the vote, compared to 37% of his rival, Sandra Torres of the centre-right National Unity of Hope (UNE) party. He is expected to be sworn in on 14 January. Arevalo’s victory is widely reflective of the popular support for his anti-corruption and reforms agenda in what was seen as a pivotal shift in the country’s political landscape, long dominated by right-leaning figures. Essentially, the outcome of the results showed that corruption and poverty were the primary concern for voters’ discontent with the status

Seen as the most progressive candidate in decades, Arévalo drew support mainly from the urban, youth vote, as well as indigenous communities who found the pledge to fight poverty appealing. On top of an agenda that resonated with key demographics, his campaign also benefited from clever use of social media platforms such as TikTok and Twitter to cleverly engage users and host discussions on themes such as human rights and poverty.

Looking ahead, Arévalo and his running mate, Karin Herrera, will face fierce opposition from a powerful elite with established leverage over state institutions. Shortly after the results were announced, reports emerged on 24 August of a possible plot to kill him. In the aftermath of the first round of elections, the offices of the Movimiento Semilla were raided by police as part of intimidation tactics. Furthermore, to bring his campaign promises to fruition, Arévalo will also have to rise above ideological divergences to forge alliances with strategic groupings, while also courting the backing of business and private sector for his reform agenda.