Five key developments in international relations this week: 10-14 July 🔍🌍

SITREP: Sudan conflict

Fighting in Sudan, which broke out on 15 April, has continued with violence mostly centred in urban areas, particularly the capital, Khartoum (and neighbouring cities of Omdurman and Bahri). Sporadic clashes between the main belligerents – the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – have been reported in parts of the Darfur region (across various localities in West Darfur, South Darfur and North Darfur states), and in North Kordofan and Northern states.

According to the latest estimates by Sudanese health authorities, the conflict has killed more than 3000 people and wounded over 6000, although international aid agencies say these figures are likely to be higher. The war has displaced nearly 3 million people, including more than 2.2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and over 700,000 refugees who have fled to neighbouring countries, according to the latest figures by the International Organization for Migration's (IOM) Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM).

This week has also seen a flurry of activity with respect to various conflict resolution efforts by external actors. On 10 July, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Quartet on Sudan (comprised of Kenya, South Sudan, Djibouti, and Ethiopia) met in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and resolved “to request the East Africa Standby Force (EASF) summit to convene in order to consider the possible deployment of the EASF for the protection of civilians and guarantee humanitarian access”. The proposal for deployment of a regional force was swiftly rejected by the Sudanese Foreign Affairs ministry, citing concerns about Kenya’s impartiality in light of its alleged close ties with the RSF.

On 12 July, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el Sisi hosted a summit in Cairo that brought together leaders of Sudan’s neighbouring states, including Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, as well as the Secretary-General of the Arab League and the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson. Overall, the summit issued a joint statement in which they agreed to form a ministerial mechanism comprised of the foreign ministers of Sudan’s neighbouring states to coordinate conflict resolution initiatives. The first meeting of the mechanism will be held in Chad, where an executive action plan will be developed to find a comprehensive solution to the crisis. The communique also called for an end to external interference in the Sudan crisis, a likely dig at the Gulf Countries, Israel and Russia, whose divergent interests and agenda are likely to exacerbate the conflict dynamics Furthermore, in his speech, Sisi called on the warring parties to cease hostilities and commence negotiations with a view to reaching a lasting ceasefire. He also called for an inclusive dialogue of the Sudanese parties that also included political and civil forces.

Egypt’s positioning as a would-be mediator in the Sudan crisis is particularly interesting in light of Cairo’s own geostrategic ambitions in Sudan and the broader region. Since the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Sisi has maintained a close relationship with Sudan’s military establishment with a view to strengthening the military faction vis-à-vis the civilian component in the beleaguered political transition. For Cairo, military rule in Sudan is favourable to its regional interests, especially with regard to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a matter on which Sisi and Burhan share a view contra Ethiopia. The ongoing conflict in Sudan could not only undermine Egypt’s efforts to forge a united front against Ethiopia, but it also creates spillover risks for Egypt’s border which has been vulnerable to infiltration by extremist elements. The influx of close to 300, 000 Sudanese refugees fleeing into Egypt could also pile pressure on an already-strained Egyptian economy which has been grappling with a weakened currency, elevated inflation and widening fiscal deficits.

Looking ahead, a prolonged war in Sudan could have significant destabilising effects in the region, aggravating the humanitarian situation that was already dire as a result of food insecurity and drought. The conflict could also intersect with political, economic and military faultlines in neighbouring countries such as the Chad, South Sudan and Libya which are grappling with their own political instability and conflict situations.

⚔️ NATO’s Vilnius Summit

The annual NATO summit took place in Vilnius, Lithuania from 11-12 July. Leaders from the 31 NATO member states attended the summit, alongside  the EU as observer and non-members Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Georgia, South Korea and Ukraine. Top of the agenda was the question of Ukraine’s membership and the security guarantees by the Alliance in Kiev’s ongoing war with Russia.

A key highlight of this year’s summit was Sweden’s accession as the 32^nd member following a last-minute shift by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 10 July, although the decision will only be formalised in October when Turkey’s lawmakers return from their break. Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in May 2022, but had their applications held up by Turkey’s demands for intensified counter-terrorism operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and reactivation of arms exports to Turkey.

On the issue of Ukrainian membership, divisions among member states were apparent. The most vocal proponents of Ukraine’s membership bid were the Baltic and Eastern European states whereas the US and Germany were the most reticent, wary of being pulled into a war with a nuclear power. In the end, all that Ukraine got was a NATO-Ukraine Council to facilitate dialogue and cooperation with NATO allies and a pledge for supply of more weapons and non-lethal assistance. (see the NATO communiqué)

The decision to defer Ukrainian membership until “Allies agree and conditions are met” while not setting out a definite timeline elicited a disappointed reaction from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who sent out a tweet complaining about the "weak" and "absurd" NATO stance on his country’s membership. Zelensky’s outburst upset his Western allies, evidenced by a harsh rebuke  from British defence secretary, Ben Wallace, demanding that Ukraine show “gratitude” for the massive military and diplomatic support provided by its NATO allies.

In a separate but notable development, NATO leaders met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the summit to finalize a cooperation agreement. The agreement, known as Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP), covers 16 areas of cooperation, including cyber, emerging and disruptive technologies and strategic communications. The ITPP further outlined joint capability and interoperability development between Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and NATO. Although plans for the opening of a NATO office in Japan were deferred, reportedly due to objections from France, the agreement is a sign of the expansion of NATO’s remit beyond the trans-Atlantic into the Indo-Pacific sphere.

A significant portion of the communiqué was also dedicated to highlighting Russia as the greatest “threat to the security of the Euro-Atlantic area”, and China as a strategic rival on account of its “stated ambitions and coercive policies.”

In the main, the NATO summit did not deviate from the status quo, namely the anti-Russian rhetoric and promise of more assistance to Ukraine, although signs of growing frustration with Ukraine’s failure to mount a successful offensive in recent weeks were visible among the Allies. The cold harsh reality of the possibility of a Ukrainian loss, at the expense of NATO and the collective West, is slowly beginning to set in, with far-reaching implications for sustainability of both military and non-lethal assistance in the medium- to long term.

🗺️ ASEAN - 56th Ministerial Meeting 

The 56th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ meeting was held on 11-12 July 2023 in Jakarta, Indonesia. Held under the theme “ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth,’’ the meeting brought together leaders from the ten ASEAN Member States, alongside three partners, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ASEAN+3). Complementary to the main meetings, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang also participated as dialogue partners in additional meetings on 13 and 14 July.

This year’s meeting was held against the backdrop of developments in Myanmar which has been under military rule since a coup ousted the government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. The crisis in Myanmar has been a major test of the regional bloc’s peacemaking credentials and coherence in light of persistent differences among members on how to handle the ruling junta. ASEAN’s five-point plan, which calls for an immediate cessation of violence and dialogue among the parties, has failed to bring the belligerents to the negotiating table. At the same time, ASEAN member states are split on the course of action. Some members, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, have urged a more robust response, while others, such as Thailand, have advocated the reopening of high-level engagement with the military junta. For its part, Indonesia has held over 100 multi-format engagements with various stakeholders in Myanmar including the military, the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), and various ethnic armed organizations and civil society groups.

Tensions in the South China sea, centred around decades-long territorial disputes between several ASEAN member states and China, was also on the agenda. Recent months have witnessed incursions by China into disputed maritime territory claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam. In this respect, the communiqué did not mention China by name while emphasizing “non-militarisation and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities by claimants and all other states.”

A major highlight on the sidelines of the ASEAN forum was a meeting between Blinken and Wang, their second face-to-face in less than a month. Per reports from US State department officials, the two leaders discussed a broad range of issues including trade, security and geopolitics. The meeting follows US Treasury Secretary’s visit to Beijing from 6-9 July and ahead of a four-day visit by  US climate envoy John Kerry set for 17-20 July. Although these visits are a positive step in maintaining channels of communications, tensions between the US and China remain high over a range of issues, including spying allegations, Taiwan, U.S. export bans on advanced technologies and trade tariffs.

🌊 International Seabed Authority meeting

Diplomats convened at the International Seabed Authority (ISA) in Kingston, Jamaica on 10 July for talks on regulation of deep-sea mining. Deep sea mining entails the extraction of "polymetallic nodules" from the ocean bed using heavy machinery.

The talks, which are expected to last through 28 July, are taking place in the context of mounting calls from some ISA member state and a coalition of nongovernmental organizations for a moratorium on commercial mining. Opponents of deep-sea mining have highlighted the environmental impact of operations, including potential damage to marine ecosystems. On the other hand, proponents argue that deep-sea mining could provide access to critical minerals that are essential for the energy transition, in addition to creation of jobs especially for small nations.

In past years, mining companies have had to apply for ISA permits via country sponsors.  The latest round of talks on regulations was motivated by Nauru’s invocation of a rule that obliges the  ISA council to consider and provisionally approve applications for up to two years after they are submitted. Nauru is the sponsoring state of The Metals Company, a Vancouver-based mining company which aims to start explorations in the Pacific next year.

Given the high-stakes nature of the issues up for debate, especially environmental implications  and the question of enforcement mechanisms, it is unlikely that a regulatory framework will be finalised in the coming weeks. The most likely scenario would be ISA extending the moratorium on mining until the regulations are in place.

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023

The UN flagship report on the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World was launched on 12 July in Geneva. The report provides an update on global efforts aimed at ending hunger, achieving food security and improving nutrition as well as analysis of key challenges for food security in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Key highlights from this year’s report include:

• Global hunger: While global hunger numbers have stalled between 2021 and 2022, between 690 and 783 million people in the world faced hunger in 2022. Key drivers of the high levels of global hunger include rising food and energy prices stemming from the war in Ukraine, and negative effect of conflict and weather-related events.

• Nutritional access: More than 3.1 billion people in the world – or 42 percent – were unable to afford a healthy diet in 2021.This is linked to the rising cost of a healthy diet, compounded by shrinking disposable incomes as a result of cost-of-living pressures.

• Urbanization effect on agrifood systems: increased urbanization is contributing towards increased consumption of processed and highly processed foods, which in turn has led to higher prevalence of obesity, diabetes and hypertension across urban, peri-urban, and rural areas.

• The rural-urban continuum and implications for food security and nutrition:  The increased links across the rural–urban continuum coupled with closer interactions between the components of agrifood systems create a number of opportunities and challenges for the availability and affordability of healthy diets. Opportunities include diet diversification and better income opportunities for farmers well connected to cities. On the other hand, challenges include increased demand and supply of convenience, pre-prepared, ready-to-eat and fast foods, insufficient production and high prices of fruits and vegetables, and emergence of food deserts and swamps, among others.

• Interconnected food markets, food supply chains and shifting agrifood systems: Previously self-sustaining rural regions, especially in Africa and Asia, are now found to be increasingly dependent on national and global food markets.

• ·Technology as an enabler for agrifood systems transformation: the strategic deployment of technology and innovation can be a critical catalyst of agrifood systems transformation. Examples include vertical farming which allows for cultivation in limited spaces.

Notable mentions

The African Union (AU) Mid-Year Coordination Meeting between the AU, the Regional Economic Communities and Regional Mechanisms took place in Nairobi, Kenya from 13-16 July. The meeting agenda builds on the AU theme for 2023, "Acceleration of African Continental Free Trade Area Implementation" (AcFTA). Other issues discussed during the meeting included the Status of regional integration in Africa, division of labour between the AU, RECs/RMs and Member States consideration of the report on AU institutional Reform