Five key developments in international relations this week: 17-21 March 🔍🌍

⚔️⚔️SITREP : Sudan conflict

The Sudanese army (SAF) announced on 21 March that it had retaken the presidential palace in Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), nearly two years after the latter first seized Khartoum. The SAF’s offensive to retake the palace followed the breaking of a two-year siege of its general headquarters in late January and gaining control of the East Nile locality on 07 March 7. The first phase of SAF’s offensive in Khartoum  involved isolating the RSF at the palace as troops advancing from the south linked up with army units in the city centre, effectively encircling RSF fighters stationed at the palace and other key buildings in downtown Khartoum. The RSF retaliated with a drone attack as some fighters fled towards the Al-Mogran area, Tuti Island, and the Strategic Battalion headquarters, and posted snipers in high-rises overlooking Omdurman and central Khartoum. An army spokesman stated that “hundreds of militia members who tried to escape through pockets in central Khartoum” were eliminated.

Regaining control of the capital would be a symbolic victory for the SAF, and would bolster its claims of legitimacy as the sole governing authority over the Sudanese state. RSF leaders downplayed the setbacks and vowed to continue fighting. In the coming days, the battle for Khartoum will shift to RSF-controlled areas in southern neighbourhoods like Gabra, Soba, and Jebel Awlia, where the RSF has limited defensive capabilities. However, the RSF’s supply route into Khartoum is limited, making large-scale reinforcements unlikely.

Elsewhere, reports on 21 March indicated that the RSF had seized the town of al-Maliha, located 210 kilometres northeast of El Fasher, North Darfur state. According to local sources, the RSF invaded the town with approximately 700 combat vehicles, prompting fierce battles with the Joint Forces (allied force to the SAF), which eventually saw the paramilitary group taking control of the town and imposing a siege on it. Al-Maliha is considered a strategic stronghold of the Joint Forces and the army; it is also situated at crossroads between Al-Dabbah to the north, Hamrat al-Sheikh in North Kordofan to the east, and El-Fasher to the south.

The humanitarian crisis remains grim: the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) reported on 19 March that dozens of civilians had been killed in eastern Khartoum as a result of the intensifying clashes between the RSF and SAF. Both military factions have deliberately attacked civilians in artillery attacks and aerial bombardments, in addition to carrying out  raids and looting of critical aid supplies. Beyond Khartoum, famine conditions have worsened in the Zamzam camp for displaced persons, and deliveries of aid remain suspended due to the security situation.

DRC and Rwanda leaders hold talks in Doha

DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame held direct talks in Doha, Qatar, on 18 March, mediated by the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. A joint statement was issued calling for an "immediate ceasefire" in eastern DRC, although no additional details were provided regarding how it would be implemented or monitored. The leaders also agreed to continue discussions initiated in Doha to establish a lasting peace.

The talks in Qatar came after M23 unilaterally withdrew from Angolan-mediated negotiations with the DRC in retaliation for EU sanctions against Rwandan and M23 officials. The EU sanctioned five Rwandan officials, four M23 leaders, and a gold refinery in Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, on 17 March.

The meeting in Doha between key leaders signals a potential opportunity for constructive dialogue, despite ongoing M23 rebel offensives. Regional diplomatic initiatives led by SADC and the EAC have made little headway largely due to lingering mutual distrust between the belligerents and mediators. The DRC government has refused to engage in dialogue with the M23, who they regard as a terrorist group. However, in recent days, the government has been forced to reconsider its stance on dialogue with the M23 particularly in light of the evolving realities on the ground which has seen the M23 take control of vast amounts of territory in North and South Kivu provinces, including provincial capital, Goma and a string of other strategic towns.

Earlier this week, the M23 rebels seized the town of Walikale, which has the largest tin deposits in Congo and several significant gold mines. The town, which is located about 400 km of Kisangani, Congo's fourth-biggest city, is significant as it marks the most westward point of the M23’s offensive. Later, in what has been portrayed as a sign of good will, the M23  stated on 22 March that they would withdraw their forces from Walikale and its surroundings in line with a ceasefire declared in February and in support of peace initiatives.

There has also been increased diplomatic pressure in recent weeks to get main parties to the negotiating table, key of which is Rwanda which has been accused of providing substantive military and financial support to the M23, a claim which Kigali has denied. The sanctions against M23 leaders and Rwandan officials could eventually force Kigali to pull back in its involvement in the conflict.

Looking ahead, negotiations involving M23 and the Kinshasa government require coordinated efforts among various international actors. Meanwhile, the M23 continues to demonstrate significant capabilities and political intent as they set up governance structures in captured territories – a sign that they are here to stay.

Israel resumes military operations in Gaza after breakdown of two-month ceasefire

Israel resumed large-scale airstrikes on Gaza on 18 March killing over 400 Palestinians in a single night. The massive attack came about two weeks after Israel imposed a total blockade on aid and all other goods entering Gaza at the end of the first phase of the ceasefire deal, which had been realised on 17 January. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on 18 March that he instructed the Israeli military to escalate in Gaza in response to Hamas rejecting US and Israeli terms for an extended temporary ceasefire. According to Hamas, Israel had chosen to end the ceasefire unilaterally, perceptibly in a bid to avoid moving on to the second phase of the ceasefire, which entailed a permanent truce and withdrawal of Israeli troops.

Following the airstrikes, Israel announced renewed ground operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip with the aim of widening the ‘Netzarim Corridor,’ the strip of land the IDF has carved out to bisect Gaza into its northern and southern sectors.

Israel’s resumption of attacks on Gaza has to be viewed in light of political dynamics, specifically Netanyahu’s efforts to survive in the face of legal and political battles, as well as the need to appease his constellation of far-right allies who have been pressing for a resumption of hostilities. Figures like Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich had demanded a resumption of the war and harsher action in Gaza. Additionally, Netanyahu has been making changes in top military and intelligence positions, potentially consolidating his control.

From a different perspective, Netanyahu may have felt emboldened to disregard the ceasefire agreement, possibly influenced by President Trump's approach. There were conflicting signals from the Trump administration, with envoy Steve Witkoff initially supporting an Arab League plan for Gaza's reconstruction without displacement, while Trump himself had previously floated a takeover of Gaza. Despite international condemnation, there has been a lack of tangible pressure on Israel to prevent the resumption of hostilities or to adhere to ceasefire agreements.

The collapse of the Gaza ceasefire and the resumption of large-scale Israeli military operations represent a significant setback in efforts to de-escalate the conflict. A complex interplay of Israeli domestic politics, strategic calculations regarding Hamas, perceived shifts in U.S policy, and a lack of effective external pressure appear to have contributed to this outcome. The immediate consequences are a tragic increase in Palestinian casualties and a deepening humanitarian crisis, with uncertain prospects for a swift return to a meaningful peace process.

Türkiye

🪧 Arrest of prominent opposition leader sparks protests

Protests have continued in recent days across Türkiye following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor and prominent opposition leader, Ekrem Imamoglu, on 19 March. Affiliated with the left-leaning Republican People’s Party (CHP), Imamoglu faces grave accusations, including establishing and leading a criminal enterprise, extortion, corruption, unauthorized access to personal data, rigging government contracts, and alleged connections to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), considered a terrorist organization in Türkiye. Over a hundred others, including Imamoglu's associates, municipal officials, business figures, and journalists, were also detained as part of the investigation.

Imamoglu’s growing popularity in Istanbul and across the country has positioned him as the main rival of President Recep Tayyip, especially in the lead up to the 2028 presidential election. His arrest is widely seen as a politically motivated move to neutralise a strong opponent ahead of upcoming presidential election, particularly given declining support for Erdogan. Tellingly, the arrest occurred few days before the Republican People's Party (CHP; Turkiye’s main opposition group) congress was set to take place, where Imamoglu was expected to be officially nominated as the presidential candidate.

Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Istanbul on 19 March, setting off what have been reported as the largest anti-government protests in Turkey in over a decade. Several roads were closed, some social media platforms were restricted, and a four-day demonstration ban was put into place in an attempt to thwart protests. Despite this, protesters have defied gathering bans, expressing anger over what they deem as pervasive authoritarianism and repression. The demonstrations across Turkey have been largely peaceful, although there have been instances where police have clashed with protesters and have fired pepper gas and water cannons towards them.

Update**: On 23 March, a court jailed Imamoglu on corruption charges. As court proceedings carried on, 15 million people voted in an opposition primary to select the city's opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as candidate. The symbolic referendum affirmed wide support for Imamoglu and strong show of solidarity by the public.

🏛️ Summitry

EU Council meeting, 20 March

European leaders gathered for a second summit this month, in Brussels to discuss a range of topics,  including Ukraine, the Middle East, competitiveness, and European defence and security among others.

Here’s an overview of key outcomes:

• Ukraine: 26 EU leaders reaffirmed support for Ukraine with the exception of Hungary which  has consistently opposed EU aid to Kyiv.

• Competitiveness: Euro area leaders agreed to deliver "fast and decisive progress" on integrating the EU's capital markets. Council endorsed plans to channel private savings into productive investments via a Savings and Investment Union.

• European Defence and Security : EU leaders affirmed von der Leyen’s “ReArm Europe” Plan, which is aimed at boosting defence capacity via several options including €150 billion in loans, more debt, and the re-purposing of existing budgets. Plans for joint borrowing have yet to materialise, while some countries like Spain and Italy expressed concerns about the broadening definition of defence which has oscillated from the ‘ReArm Europe’ agenda to ‘Readiness 2030’ plan.

• Migration: The main focus is on strengthening the “external dimension” through “comprehensive partnerships” with third countries, seen as a necessary step to complete the return system which is already in place. The concepts of safe third countries and safe countries of origin remained key points for further discussion.

• Energy : Leaders reiterated the commitment to achieving European sovereignty and climate neutrality by 2050, while remaining competitive globally. This includes stepping up efforts to protect citizens and businesses from high energy costs secure the supply of affordable and clean energy.

The board of the U.S. Export-Import Bank on 13 March approved a $ 4.7 billion loan for a long-delayed LNG project in Mozambique, which is run by French energy corporation, TotalEnergies. The $20 billion project had been paused in 2021 due to violent unrest in the northern Cabo Delgado region. U.S backing for the project is in line with the Trump administration’s goals of energy security and dominance in the era of strategic competition, with the project expected to build on to the U.S’ dominance in the natural gas global market.