Five key developments in international relations this week: 31 Mar - 04 Apr 2025 🔍🌍

⚔️⚔️SITREP : Sudan conflict

The civilian casualty toll in Sudan’s deadly conflict continues to rise as the fighting shows no signs of abating anytime soon. Per reports on 02 April, attacks by Rapid Support Forces (RSF) over four days on villages south of Omdurman have resulted in at least 96 fatalities. These attacks followed the withdrawal of RSF fighters from the nearby Jebel Aulia area after the Sudanese army regained control of areas south of the capital Khartoum last week. Elsewhere, atrocities by the RSF were also reported in the Abu Shouk displacement camp, in el-Fasher, North Darfur state. As of 01 April, at least seven people had been killed and nine injured as a  result of the renewed shelling. The attacks were condemned by Darfur Governor, Mini Arko Minawi, who said the assault on civilians was part of the RSF’s plan to “exterminate” the residents of el-Fasher and nearby displacement camps.

Also of major concern, authorities managing the Abu Shouk camp reported 27 documented cases of rape committed by RSF forces between January and the end of March. The catastrophic situation is compounded by worsening famine conditions in Abu Shouk, Zamzam, and Hai El Salam camps, as well as the Western Nuba Mountains, affecting 640,000 people. The food and medicine shortages have also been linked to the RSF’s continuing siege of el-Fasher.

According to estimates by the UN and local authorities, the war in Sudan, which broke out in April 2023, has killed more than 20,000 people and displaced 14 million others. Researchers at Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab, who have been tracking the violence in Sudan war using satellite images and thermal sensing data estimate that the death toll could be as high as 150,000, taking into consideration unreported deaths as a result of starvation and disease.

📈 Africa security trends

Nigeria unveils kamikaze attack drones

Nigeria’s military recently unveiled  Africa’s “first and largest” attack drone, developed in collaboration with Nigerian tech firm Briech UAS. Chief of Defence Staff General Christopher Musa emphasized that the drone will serve as a force multiplier, significantly enhancing the Nigerian military’s operational effectiveness.

Kamikaze drones are designed as single-use, explosive-laden aircraft intended for impactful strikes on targets. The drone is expected to play a critical role in Nigeria's ongoing counter-insurgency efforts, complementing its existing fleet of surveillance and reconnaissance platforms. Furthermore, this development aims to reduce Nigeria's reliance on foreign arms suppliers, which have previously caused delays in acquiring essential equipment. Nigeria has long relied on foreign-made drones, such as the Chinese Wing Loong II and the US Aerosonde drones, to bolster its fleet. Overall, the development marks a major milestone in the continent’s ability to develop advanced defence technologies and bodes well for efforts to bolster militaries’ operational capabilities.

💱 Global economy

 US Imposes Broad Tariff Regime on Trade Partners

On 02 April 2025, U.S President Donald Trump announced and implemented sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on all imports into the United States. These tariffs, dubbed "Liberation Day" by Trump, mark a significant escalation in his trade policies and have triggered widespread concern and predictions of a global trade war. The US administration claims these tariffs on imports will reduce the US trade deficit and address what it views as unfair and non-reciprocal trade practices.

In brief, the tariff plan imposed a baseline 10% duties on imports from all trading partners, with significantly steeper rates for countries running trade surpluses with the U.S. The higher, customised tariffs will be imposed on approximately 60 countries deemed "worst offenders" , expected to come into effect on 09 April. Trump’s officials say these countries charge higher tariffs on US goods, impose “non-tariff” barriers to US trade or have otherwise acted in ways they feel undermine American economic goals. Examples of these customised tariffs include: 46% for Vietnam, 36% for Thailand, 24% for Japan, 49% for Cambodia; 30% for South Africa and, 32% for Taiwan among others. The claim by Trump that the tariffs were ‘reciprocal’ has also been challenged, with economists criticising the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) calculations as deeply flawed. They pointed out that trade balances are driven by a host of economic factors, not simply tariff levels.

The methodology behind the specific rates remains contested, with some suggesting a link to bilateral trade surpluses with the U.S. The announcement was met with outrage and condemnation; some actors including China and the European Union have vowed to retaliate, raising the risk of a global trade war marked by tit-for-tat tariffs. The implementation of these sweeping tariffs represents a major upheaval in US trade policy in decades and is set to reshape global trade. It has already led to nervousness in global markets, with stock markets falling and concerns about a global recession rising.

Trump’s actions have been seen as a wrecking ball to the global trading system established since World War II with economic and strategic fallout reverberating beyond the U.S.’ orders. While the stated goal is often to boost domestic industries and reduce trade deficits, the tariffs are likely to push up inflation significantly in the U.S, particularly in the near term. Some sectors are likely to be hit harder than others, for instance, the auto industry, may face higher costs due to tariffs on imported parts. The uncertainty surrounding the permanence and impact of the tariffs could dampen investor and consumer confidence, amidst heightened inflationary pressures and a downturn in global economy. Linked to this, the inflationary squeeze and financial strain could shape up as a substantial political risk for Trump, with negative impacts potentially souring sentiments within his support base.

Trump’s tariffs could also lead to pivotal shifts in trade alliances and regional dynamics. For instance, China, South Korea and Japan have announced plans to establish a free trade agreement deal to promote regional trade and to strengthen supply chain cooperation and engage in more dialogue on export controls.

⚡Flashpoint - West Asia

U.S-Iran tensions

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated significantly in recent days, fuelled by President Trump's renewed pressure on Tehran to agree to a nuclear deal. Trump recently threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal isn’t reached, and he has reportedly given Tehran a two-month deadline, which would end at the end of May. Iran responded to Trump by rejecting direct talks in the face of increasing US pressure, but Tehran has offered to hold indirect negotiations.

Although the White House is seriously considering Iran’s offer for indirect talks, the U.S is engaging in a massive buildup of forces in West Asia, signalling a ramp-up of its offensive capabilities in the region, in view of the May deadline set by Washington for Iran to engage in nuclear program negotiations. Recent US deployments to West Asia have included an additional aircraft carrier, additional air assets, and sending more B-2 bombers to its base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. According to Haaretz, the buildup is the largest offensive US deployment in the region since October 7, 2023.

In addition to the deployment of B-2 stealth bombers, there has also been a surge in US military cargo flights, with over 20 U.S. Air Force cargo planes arriving from South Korea and Fort Sill, Oklahoma, likely carrying Patriot and THAAD batteries. Additional U.S. transport planes landed in Djibouti and at a Saudi Red Sea airfield, where the USS Truman carrier strike group  has been engaged in attacks against Yemen’s Ansarallah. Another aircraft carrier, the USS Carl Vinson is enroute from the Pacific and is expected to arrive in less than two weeks to bolster U.S. Central Command’s efforts.

In a related development, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have restricted U.S military access to their airspace and territories for operations against Iran. This refusal is a setback for the Trump administration which had hoped to use recent strikes against Yemen’s Ansarallah as a show of force. Iran has warned of a "strong reciprocal blow" if the US or Israel bomb it. Possible Iranian retaliatory actions include major missile attacks on US bases in the region, where the US has approximately 50,000 troops. Iran could retaliate with drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles against US forces and potentially involve Gulf states hosting US forces. The Strait of Hormuz is a major concern, as Iran could attempt to close it, impacting global energy supplies. Furthermore, any strike against Iran's nuclear facilities carries immense risks of regional conflagration and severe global repercussions, underscoring the urgency of de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution.

Then there’s Israel’s role in this quagmire. For years, Netanyahu and his hawkish governing coalitions have long desired to push the U.S. into a war with its Iranian rival to ensure Israeli regional dominance by severely diminishing Iran’s military capabilities. Tel Aviv and Tehran have been engaging in what has been characterised as “a shadow war” for years. Israel has orchestrated repeated covert actions to impair Iran’s nuclear program, military facilities and energy infrastructure; and exchanged tit-for-tat attacks with Iran on the high seas and in cyberspace. For its part, Iran has long supported a variety of militias that Israel and its U.S ally view with concern.

Russia-U.S. relations - Russian economic envoy’s visit to the U.S

Russian Presidential Envoy on Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation, Kirill Dmitriev, travelled to the U.S 02-03 April where he held meetings with key members of the Trump administration. This was the first visit by a high-ranking Russian official to Washington since 2022. Discussions covered the possibilities of resuming direct air service between the two countries, a ceasefire in Ukraine as well as cooperation on the Arctic and rare-earth metals. Dmitriev characterised the meeting positively, noting that the Trump administration showed a better understanding of Russia’s terms than the previous administration under Biden, and that officials were willing to engage in constructive dialogue on a whole host of issues pertaining to the improvement of bilateral relations between Russia and the U.S. However, significant obstacles to a normalization of relations persist, both domestically within the US and due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the positions of its allies. Brussels and Kiev continue to hinder the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, viewing the Russia-U.S dialogue as threat to their political positions.

Germany officially launched its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II by activating a 5000-strong armoured brigade in Lithuania. The newly created 45th Armoured Brigade was formally activated on 01 April in a ceremony outside Vilnius, with a temporary headquarters established and Brigadier General Christoph Huber assuming command. This move aims to reinforce NATO's eastern border in response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The development occurs within a broader European context where the EU is actively considering and strategizing for potential large-scale conflict, as outlined in the Preparedness Union Strategy. The long-term deployment by Germany marks a significant shift in the country’s defence policy, moving towards a more active military role within the alliance.