Five key developments in international relations this week: 26-30 May 2025🔍🌍

⚔️⚔️SITREP : Sudan conflict

The RSF launched significant counterattacks in West and South Kordofan over the past few days, reversing recent SAF gains in mid-May. In a coordinated offensive launched on 29 May, RSF units seized control of Al-Debeibat and Al-Hamadi in South Kordofan, Al-Khuwei in West Kordofan, and Umm Sumaymah in North Kordofan after hours of fierce battles with the SAF. According to local sources, RSF units were mobilized from the Darfur region and West Kordofan, with the attacking units advancing from An-Nahud toward Al-Khuwei and Umm Sumaymah, and Abu Zabad.

The RSF’s military operations entailed mass atrocities against civilians, including killings, looting, and forced displacement, with thousands of civilians reportedly fleeing towards El-Obeid city in North Kordofan. Clashes between the warring factions are expected to continue in the coming days amid reports of SAF mobilization the southern and western axes of El-Obeid.

Elsewhere, on 30 May, the Sudanese army launched drone strikes on RSF positions in Nyala the capital of South Darfur. These strikes included attacks on Nyala International Airport and the Kashlingo camp, an RSF training centre, using high-explosive missiles. RSF elements also launched an assault on Souk Mawqif Al-Jeneina (Al-Jeneina Bus Station Market). The army’s aerial attacks in Nyala are expected to continue in coming days, with the objective of degrading RSF infrastructure and severing their gold smuggling operations via the Nyala airport.

In Khartoum state, authorities began relocating refugees and other foreigners from the capital on 29 May. This relocation effort occurs amidst the broader displacement crisis caused by the war, which has displaced an estimated 14 million people. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with the health ministry reporting a cholera outbreak in Khartoum state – 172 deaths were reported nationwide as of 28 May, with 90 percent of cases in Khartoum state. The scale of the outbreak is exacerbated by the near-total collapse of health services as result of the ongoing war, in addition to lack of clean water and mass displacement flows.

In El Fasher, North Darfur, a World Food Programme (WFP) warehouse was damaged by RSF shelling on 30 May. The attacks on the WFP facility occurred amidst a worsening famine situation in 10 locations – eight in North Darfur, including Zamzam Camp, and two in the Western Nuba Mountains.

Taken together, the deteriorating humanitarian situation and indiscriminate attacks against civilians add a layer of complexity to the intensifying military confrontation between the warring factions, which show little signs of abating anytime soon.

EU member states approve €150 billion joint defence lending instrument

The General Affairs Council, made up of EU ministers, on 27 May approved the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, intended to fund joint procurement deals for defence industrial production. The core aim of SAFE is to boost production capacity to ensure defence equipment availability, addressing existing capability gaps, and ultimately strengthening the EU’s overall defence readiness. Through SAFE, the EU will provide up to €150 billion in competitively priced long-maturity loans, with a maximum duration of 45 years and a 10-year grace period for principal repayments. A key requirement is that beneficiary member states must carry out common procurements involving at least two participating countries to qualify for the loans. Furthermore, SAFE regulation mandates that the cost of components originating outside the EU, EEA-EFTA states, and Ukraine must not exceed 35% of the estimated end-product cost.

The SAFE programme was initially proposed by the Commission in March as the financing part of a broader plan to boost the European defence industry and increase production. The approval process was marked by controversy, following a decision by the Commission to invoke an emergency clause to bypass the European Parliament ending negotiations directly to the Council. Following the Council's adoption, SAFE entered into force on 29 May and countries will have six months to put together joint procurement proposals, line up defence industry partners, and request loans from the Commission.

Eligible defence products covered the programme includes ammunition and missiles, artillery systems, air and missile defence systems, maritime surface and underwater capabilities; drones and anti-drone systems, among others. Category 2 products (such as air and missile systems) are subject to stricter eligibility conditions, requiring contractors to have the ability to decide on the definition, adaptation, and design evolution of procurements.

Overall, the SAFE programme is envisioned as a means for the EU to bolster its defence capabilities and reduce reliance on the U.S, which has been a major supplier. Recent developments related to the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly mounting doubts about the reliability of the U.S as a pivotal partner have also motivated European leaders to strengthen their own defence industrial and technological base.

Mexico’s first-ever judicial elections

Mexico is set to hold its first-ever judicial elections on 01 June, in which voters will elect more than 2,600 judges and magistrates, including the Supreme Court. The judicial elections – the first of its kind in the world – was proposed by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador as part of a plan to overhaul the judiciary. Voters will elect nine Supreme Court judges, as well as judges and magistrates across 19 of Mexico's 32 administrative divisions.

Supporters of the reform initiative argue that popular election of judges will help root out corruption in the judiciary and make judges more accountable to the public. On the contrary, critics fear that electing judges risks politicizing the judiciary and undermining the rule of law. Moreover, the new nomination process potentially exposes the judicial system to the influence of partisan politics, favouring candidates with close ties to the ruling MORENA party. Another major concern is influence of organised crime. Criminal groups have already infiltrated local governments, security forces, and economic sectors in the country, and could stand to hold more sway over the judicial system by fielding their own candidates. Critics also warn that the new system, which lowers experience and minimum age requirements for candidates, could lead to the election of inexperienced judges.

Calls by opposition parties for a boycott of the vote, coupled with the complexity of the process have pollsters projecting a low voter turnout – independent surveys suggest only about a third of voters may participate.

In sum, the effectiveness of the reform in addressing fundamental issues plaguing Mexico's justice system remains highly debated, with critics arguing that it misses the core issues within the police and prosecution systems. Mexico's revamped system is compared to Bolivia, the only other country with national-level judicial elections, where the process has been criticised for being controlled by the ruling party.

Counting is expected to take two weeks, with the results out on 15 June.

💰Africa’s economic affairs

Elections for new president of the African Development Bank

Sidi Ould Tah, a Mauritanian economist and former finance minister, was elected as the AfDB’s new president on 29 May at the Bank’s annual meetings in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Tah won more than three-quarters of shareholder votes, beating four other candidates from Chad, Senegal, South Africa and Zambia. He replaces Akinwumi Adesina, a Nigerian economist who will step down in September after completing the maximum two five-year terms in office.

Tah's election comes at a time when African nations are facing challenging economic conditions, including aid freezes and cuts by Washington, reduced infrastructure spending and lending by China, trade tariffs announced by Washington, and high interest rates leading to higher debt servicing cost.

During his campaign, Tah pledged to prioritize resource mobilization, reform of the financial architecture, and promote investment in resilient infrastructure. He also promised to build on his decade-long experience at the helm of the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) to bring in more capital from strategic partners such as the Gulf states. At BADEA, he led a transformation that quadrupled the Bank’s balance sheet, secured a AAA rating, and positioned it among the top-rated development banks focused on Africa. He is also credited for establishing BADEA’s $1 billion callable capital program for African MDBs. It is hoped that Tah will be able to replicate some of these successes and deliver strategic wins at the AfDB.

🏛️Summitry

Hegseth evokes “China threat” in speech at Shangri-La Dialogue

U.S Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China posed a “real” and “imminent” threat in the Indo-Pacific region in a speech delivered at the Shangri-La Dialogue on 31 May. The security conference, which is considered Asia's premier security forum, has served as a platform for high-level engagement on regional security and geopolitical issues.

Hegseth’s assessment of China referenced heightened tensions over Taiwan as a flashpoint and confrontations in the South China, which signalled growing military assertiveness. In response to the perceived threat, Hegseth urged allies in the Indo-Pacific to boost their defence spending towards 5% of GDP.

China reacted strongly to Hegseth's remarks, with the foreign ministry describing  his comments as "deplorable" and filled with "provocations" aimed at sowing "division." Beijing further warned the U.S not to "play with fire" on Taiwan and blamed Washington for turning the region into a "powder keg" by stoking tensions and pushing militarization via deployment of weaponry.

The notable absence of China's Defence Minister Dong Jun was a subject of interest, a move that was viewed as a missed opportunity for high-level engagement between the U.S and China, giving the latter greater scope to influence the agenda.

Although Hegseth’s strident rhetoric was perceived in some quarters as a statement of U.S commitment to the region, the unpredictable nature of Washington’s economic policies under the current administration remains a source of concern for allies, some of whom have been on the receiving end of high tariffs.

The International Organization for Mediation – the world’s first intergovernmental legal organization for resolving disputes through mediation – was established on 30 May, with its headquarters in Hong Kong. Representatives of more than 30 countries joined China in signing the founding document of the organisation, which is expected to complement existing institutions such as the International Court of Justice and the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. The development affirms Beijing’s foreign policy objectives to project itself as a responsible great power and champion of peace diplomacy by advancing collective solutions.