Five key developments in international relations this week: 19-23 May 2025 🔍🌍

⚔️⚔️SITREP : Sudan conflict

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have made steady gains in their latest military operations specifically aimed at reaching the Darfur region and breaking the siege on el Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. This latest offensive campaign comes on the heels of the army’s advances in northern and central Sudan, most notably the re-capture of the Khartoum capital region in March. On 20 May, the SAF announced that it had cleared the state of Khartoum of RSF forces after weeks of intense battles particularly in Salha, one of the last remaining RSF strongholds in Omdurman’s southern parts. With Khartoum secured, the conflict's focus has moved to Sudan's western regions, specifically Kordofan and Darfur, where the RSF maintains its strongest foothold.

In response, the RSF has launched counteroffensives deploying drones, air raids, intelligence units, and special forces to resist the SAF’s westward advance. Near-daily drone strikes on Port Sudan, which began on 04 May, have continued, targeting military and civilian targets, part of the RSF’s efforts to make SAF-controlled territory ungovernable and undermine the army’s claims to legitimacy.

Elsewhere, in White Nile state, military sources reported on 21 May that the Sudanese army had gained grounds in Um Ramta, west of the White Nile river. In West Kordofan, SAF and allied forces announced their control of the Um Labana area, 27 km southwest of El Khoi, as the army aims to capture Al-Nahud and other strategic sites in the Kordofan region.

On the political front, SAF army chief and Chair of Sudan’s Sovereign Transitional Council,  General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, on 19 May appointed Kamil Idris as prime minister. Idris, a seasoned diplomat and politician, previously served as director general of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) between November 1997 and September 2008. Burhan also appointed two women as members of the SAF-led Transitional Sovereignty Council and stripped the council of its oversight over the cabinet to demonstrate progress toward civilian rule. These appointments are part of SAF’s efforts to bolster its political legitimacy and position itself as the sole, internationally-recognised governing entity over the state of Sudan. Idris’ appointment was met with mixed reactions across Sudan's political and military spectrum. Some groups, like the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), welcomed it as an end to an "executive vacuum" and a step towards democratic governance. Others, such as the Sudanese Congress Party, labelled it " a desperate attempt to beautify the face of the Port Sudan government" and lacking popular and institutional legitimacy.

AU Commission Chairperson Mahamoud Ali Youssouf welcomed the appointment and hailed it as a key step towards restoration of a civilian-led, democratic order. Following this, reports on 21 May noted that the AU and IGAD were pursuing plans to establish a new joint mechanism, to be led by IGAD, as part of efforts to resolve the Sudanese conflict. It was not immediately clear how this new mechanism would be implemented, or how it would align with existing initiatives such as the AU High-Level panel on Sudan, led by Mohamed Ibn Chambas.

In a separate development, the U.S. State Department on 02 May announced it would impose sanctions on Sudan after determining that its government used chemical weapons in 2024. The sanctions, expected to take effect around 06 June following a 15-day congressional notification period, will include measures such as limits on U.S. exports and government lines of credit. The U.S has previously taken action against key figures from both the RSF and SAF, including sanctioning Burhan and RSF leader Hemedti.

🔶For a detailed overview of the Sudan conflict, including the humanitarian situation and the complex drivers prolonging the war, watch a briefing to the Congressional House Foreign Affairs Committee on 22 May. Three experts, with up-to-date reports and updates, highlight fundamental aspects related to the humanitarian situation, the conflict dynamics and propose considerations for U.S diplomatic strategy in support of efforts to address the conflict

Third EU-AU ministerial meeting in Brussels, 21 May

Foreign Ministers from the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU) convened on 21 May in Brussels for the third ministerial meeting under the auspices of the AU-EU partnership. The meeting, co-chaired by the EU High Representative Kaja Kallas and Angolan Minister of External Relations Tete António, served as a prequel to the 7^th   AU-EU Summit to be held later this year, which will also mark the 25th anniversary of the strategic partnership between the two regional institutions.

Discussions revolved around key thematic areas: peace, security and governance; multilateralism; prosperity; and people, migration and mobility, covered in the Joint Communiqué issued after the meeting. On cooperation on peace, security and governance, ministers affirmed joint efforts and initiatives to address challenges such as political instability and armed conflicts, terrorism and violent extremism, transnational organised crime, and maritime insecurity, among others. Ministers agreed to strengthen African security and defence capabilities and stabilisation, including through the supply of military equipment via the European Peace Facility. In addition, the EU announced a new Special Representative for the Sahel region and a new Sahel strategy is being developed with input from African countries.

Progress on the Global Gateway Africa-Europe Investment Package was highlighted, centred on key sectors such as climate and energy, economic integration, private sector investment, sustainable agriculture, transport and corridors, critical raw materials, secure connectivity and digital transformation, universal health coverage, value addition, job creation and skills development, education, sustainable financing, innovation and youth empowerment. On migration, ministers agreed to strengthen migration governance and management and foster cooperation on effective, safe, timely, and dignified return, readmission, and sustainable reintegration. Ministers also  reaffirmed their commitment to protect and promote inclusive and effective multilateralism.

Overall, the meeting underscored the strategic imperative for cooperation between Europe and Africa and the need to move from commitments to tangible implementation, particularly in the context of a rapidly evolving geopolitical context.

G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Banff, Canada

G7 Finance ministers and central bank governors met in Banff, Alta, 20-22 May, in the lead up to the leaders' summit scheduled to be held in Kananaskis from 15-17 June. A major topic of discussion was tariffs, although the joint communiqué released after the meeting  made no direct reference to Trump’s tariffs and did not outline any specific measures to counter them.

The communiqué also reiterated the G7 countries’ "unwavering support" for Ukraine, and vowed to maximize pressure on Russia to agree to a ceasefire quickly. Proposals discussed included additional sanctions, such as lowering the G7-led $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil and maintaining the freeze on Russian assets within their jurisdictions. On trade,  the ministers agreed to work together to address "excessive imbalances" in global trade, a reference widely interpreted as targeting China's trade practices, although China was not explicitly named in the communiqué. The communiqué also called for an analysis of market concentration and international supply chain resilience.

In sum, despite divergences on some issues such as U.S tariffs and global trade imbalances, the issuance of  a joint communiqué was highlighted as a show of unity and common position on key issues such as support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, and combating financial crime. The meeting was also viewed as a key step in reinvigorating ties with the U.S, given that it is still early days for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in his role under the second Trump administration.

🛰️U.S defence and security

Trump announces plans for Golden Dome missile defence system

President Donald Trump on 20 May announced his plan for the Golden Dome missile defence system – a multilayered, $175 billion system integrating ground-based and space-based systems to detect and intercept missiles, including hypersonics. The initiative, builds on Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" (Strategic Defense Initiative - SDI) from the 1980s, and has been billed as the  ultimate defence against threats to the American homeland. The plan, initiated by executive order in January, is aimed to be completed before the president leaves office in January 2029.

Initial funding will draw from a $25 billion Republican-backed defence package, subject to Congressional approval. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), projects costs for building and maintaining the Golden Dome could spiral beyond $800 billion over two decades.

On top of the potentially astronomical costs associated with the project, industry experts and engineers have also expressed reservations about its feasibility and the purported claim of near-perfect success in intercepting incoming missiles. By way of example, in 2018, the Patriot missile system failed to intercept any of the seven missiles fired on the Saudi city of Riyadh by Houthi forces. Earlier this month, Israel’s missile defence systems failed to shoot down a ballistic missile from Yemen that landed near the Ben Gurion International Airport.

Furthermore, the reliance on space-based assets for the Golden Dome creates a significant vulnerability to counterspace attacks, which could cripple the system's ability to function effectively. Specifically, the system’s reliance on satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) for sensors and interceptors makes it susceptible to anti-satellite (ASAT) attacks and jamming.

From a geostrategic perspective, the Golden Dome could trigger a multi-domain arms race, and reignite deterrence fears among near-peer adversaries. China and Russia could view it as a potential threat to the viability of their nuclear arsenals, specifically their second-strike capabilities. Such concerns could lead to the proliferation of advanced weapon systems and other countermeasures such as hypersonic glide vehicles, fractional orbital bombardment systems, and advanced underwater drones.

Ultimately, the big winners are military and defence contractors who stand to rake in billions of dollars from a project of this magnitude. These include big names in the military industrial complex such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and L3Harris, as well as the so-called ‘new defence tech companies such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX Peter Thiel’s Palantir.

🌐Geopolitics

Deal to Transfer Sovereignty of the Disputed Chagos Islands

The governments of Britain and Mauritius signed a deal on 22 May for the transfer of sovereignty of the Chagos Islands archipelago to Mauritius, in return for the lease of the  Diego Garcia military base for £90 million annually.

Historically, the Chagos Islands, a chain of over 60 islands in the Indian Ocean, have been under British control since 1814. Britain split the islands from Mauritius, a former British colony, in 1965, before Mauritius gained independence, renaming the archipelago the British Indian Ocean Territory. In recent years, criticism grew over Britain's control and the forced displacement of the local population.

Negotiations for the transfer of sovereignty began in 2022 under the previous Conservative government and continued under the current Labour administration. However, the deal faced delays due to a change of government in Mauritius and reported quarrels over the amount the UK should pay to lease the base. At the last minute, two Chagossian women, won a temporary injunction from London's High Court, forcing an 11^th -hour halt. A high court judge lifted the injunction after a hearing, paving the way for finalisation of the agreement.

In addition to settling the long-standing dispute, the U.K’s lease over the Diego Garcia military base secures Western military positioning in the central Indian Ocean, given its positioning  at the crossroads of critical maritime routes between Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Mauritius gains control over the entire Chagos Archipelago, although the issue of resettlement of displaced Chagossian islanders remains unclear.

On 23 May, Trump threatened to impose a 50% tax on all imports from the EU, starting 01 June, citing the lack of progress in trade talks with the EU, He also threatened a 25% levy on all imported iPhones bought by U.S. consumers. The threats rattled financial markets – S&P 500 dropped about 0.7% and the Eurostoxx 600 index fell by 2%. After a brief period of relative calm, following the U.S-China deal to lower tariffs earlier this month, these threats have reignited fears of escalating trade conflicts, increases in consumer prices and significant decline in investor confidence across markets.