Five key developments in international relations this week: 24-28 March 2025🔍🌍

⚔️⚔️SITREP : Sudan conflict

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) announced on 28 March that they had  retaken control of Khartoum after eliminating the remaining fighters of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from key sites across the capital, including the airport, presidential palace and several residential neighbourhoods. In consolidating its streak of military victories, the army retook control of the Jebel Aulia dam bridge –  the RSF ‘s last remaining foothold in Khartoum – essentially cutting off the latter’s supply lines. The SAF’s gains over the past weeks come on the back of a decisive military offensive that was launched by the SAF in January of this year, strategically advancing from three fronts to expel the RSF from central Khartoum and reassert control over the capital. The recapture of Khartoum could strengthen the Sudanese military’s broader goal of positioning itself as the sole legitimate authority in Sudan. Furthermore, it could translate military victory into political capital and leverage in any future potential negotiations regarding Sudan’s post-war future.

Sources on the ground reported that large numbers of retreating RSF fighters had fled central, eastern and southern Khartoum via the Jebel Aulia bridge towards Omdurman, apparently heading towards western Sudan. However, in a statement following the army’s announcement,  the RSF dismissed claims of defeat, saying it had “repositioned” its forces to achieve its military objectives and vowing ‘to deliver crushing defeats to the enemy on all fronts. Hours after SAF commander al-Burhan announced Khartoum’s takeover, the RSF announced a formal alliance with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North faction led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu. Following this, local sources reported attacks against military-held positions around the capital of Sudan’s Blue Nile state, Ad-Damazin.

Elsewhere, hundreds of civilians were killed and dozens of others wounded in an airstrike on 24 March by SAF on a market in the town of Tora, about 40 kilometres northwest of el-Fasher city, North Darfur state. This incident has been described as the "deadliest single bombing”  since the beginning of the war in April 2023. The market in Tora was the only major one left with supplies for people in and around El-Fasher. On the day of the attack, thousands had gathered to stock up before the end of Ramadan when an SAF warplane allegedly dropped a barrel bomb.

The ongoing conflict has precipitated a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. The destruction of the last major market in North Darfur is expected to drastically worsen the already severe hunger crisis and accelerate the spread of famine in a region where two million people were already facing extreme food insecurity. Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camps are the worst affected by the famine. Hundreds of thousands, already displaced by the Darfur Civil War in the 2000s, were dependent on aid before the current conflict, which has now displaced an additional 12 million people, creating the world’s worst displacement crisis.

Compounding the food crisis are severe water shortages, particularly in Zamzam and Abu Shouk camps, making people increasingly vulnerable to diseases due to poor hygiene. The UN has urgently emphasized the need to resume the delivery of life-saving aid, calling for a cessation of fighting and security guarantees for humanitarian organizations. Across Sudan, nearly 25 million people are suffering from dire food shortages, with 600,000 on the brink of starvation.

For many observers, the SAF’s recapture of Khartoum potentially marks a significant turning point in the conflict as it seeks to build up its momentum and reassert dominance in other areas. However, there are few signs that the conflict could end soon as both sides have indicated intention to carry on fighting. In a video statement on 29 March, army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan ruled out any reconciliation with the RSF. For its part, following the announcement of a parallel government alongside its allies last month, the RSF has moved to consolidate military control in its stronghold of Darfur and western Sudan and enforce a de facto partition. This lack of willingness to compromise from either side, emboldened by military support from foreign backers, significantly diminishes any immediate prospects for a negotiated settlement.

The U.S Intelligence Community on 25 March published its annual Threat Assessment – a report complied by 18 U.S. intelligence elements which evaluates the most immediate and direct threats to the U.S. and its people. Notably, the release of the report coincided with testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence by President Donald Trump's intelligence chiefs, a day after an explosive report in The Atlantic revealed that classified information was shared in a Signal group chat that accidentally included a journalist and concerned strikes against Yemen.

Key highlights from the 2025 report included:

• China: China is identified as the most capable strategic competitor and the top military and cyber threat to the U.S., with the report highlighting Beijing’s formidable range of capabilities across military, cyber, space, economic and technological dimensions. The report further highlights that Beijing’s bid for global leadership is anchored on a grand strategy aimed at “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049,” underpinned by an intensified military modernisation strategy, “a centralized, state-directed, and nationally resourced approach to dominating global markets and strategic supply chains;  and modernisation of its nuclear strategy, among other coordinated initiatives.

Despite its growing power, the report notes that China faces "daunting domestic challenges, including corruption, demographic imbalances, and fiscal and economic headwinds that could impair the ruling Communist Party’s legitimacy at home."

• Russia: Russia's nuclear and conventional military capabilities, along with its demonstrated resilience, make it a formidable competitor. Its war in Ukraine is seen as a proxy conflict with the West and has provided Moscow with "a wealth of lessons regarding combat against Western weapons and intelligence in a large-scale war." The report further notes that Russia possesses the largest and most diverse nuclear weapons stockpile, capable of inflicting catastrophic damage on the US. It is modernising its nuclear forces for improved survivability and retaliatory capabilities. Russia also updated its nuclear doctrine in late 2024, expanding the conditions for potential use.

• Iran: Iran continues to seek expansion of its influence in the Middle East and has developed ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs capable of striking U.S. targets and allies in the region. While assessed not to be building a nuclear weapon, the public discussion of nuclear weapons within Iran has increased.

•  North Korea: Kim Jong Un is committed to pursuing strategic and conventional military capabilities that can target the US Homeland and regional allies. He seeks international acceptance as a nuclear power and reduced US military presence in the region. Kim's strategic partnership with Russia is yielding financial benefits, diplomatic support, and defence cooperation, reducing Pyongyang's reliance on China.

• Non-State Actors: Transnational Criminal Organisations (TCOs): Cartels and gangs are engaged in illicit activities, including narcotics trafficking (primarily fentanyl, with Mexico-based TCOs being the main suppliers using precursors from China and India), money laundering, and human trafficking, causing significant harm to US citizens. The sophistication of TCO tactics is increasing. Transnational Islamic Extremists: Groups like ISIS-K and al-Qa'ida affiliates (e.g., AQAP, Al-Shabaab) maintain the intent to conduct attacks globally, including in the US.

In sum, the report paints a picture of a multi-faceted threat landscape where state and non-state actors are actively challenging U.S. interests through military, cyber, economic, and influence operations.

U.S intensifies military attacks against Ansarallah  targets in Yemen

The U.S. military has ramped up its campaign against the Ansarallah resistance movement (commonly referred to as the Houthis ) in Yemen, since the commencement of strikes that that begun on 15 March, targeting key sites including command centres, weapons storage facilities, and drone launch sites. The stated goals of the operation are to deter Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, which have been ongoing since the Israel-Hamas war, and to send a strong message to Iran.

The Houthis have been carrying out missile and drone attacks on shipping through the Red Sea since shortly after the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023. The rebels stated that their campaign in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was in solidarity with Hamas. These attacks disrupted global shipping, forcing shipping firms to seek alternative routes, increasing costs and transit times.

The current US airstrike campaign is "more intense and more extensive" than previous actions, with more intense strikes on urban centres and greater operational latitude granted by the White House to the U.S. military’s Central Command, which oversees Mideast operations, to launch strikes without White House pre-approval. Since the start of air strikes, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reported 56 incidents in the week between 15-21 March. Most recently on 28 March, the U.S. reportedly launched 65 airstrikes across several northern provinces in Yemen, including Sanaa, Saada, Al Hudaydah, Al-Jawf, Marib, and Amran. These strikes hit more than 40 locations, including residential homes, shops, Sanaa International Airport, and mountainous terrain.

There have been mounting concerns of civilian casualties, with Ansarallah leaders claiming that U.S airstrikes have killed at least 57 people since the new campaign began. Despite this, its leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, has remained defiant, declaring on 28 March that the ongoing U.S aggression against Yemen will not succeed in forcing the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) to halt its operations in support of Palestine.

In addition to concerns about the strikes amounting to war crimes on account of the targeting of civilians, there is also the question of whether these strikes can actually accomplish their objectives. According to military strategists, the U.S’ “whack-a-mole” approach will remain largely ineffectually, for as long as air strikes are not accompanied by ground operations and undermining Ansarallah’s political clout and resilience on the ground.

Latin America - Brazil

Bolsonaro to stand trial

A panel of Brazilian Supreme Court justices on 25 March unanimously ruled that former President Jair Bolsonaro must stand trial for allegedly conspiring to overthrow the government after he lost a 2022 election. The charges include attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, damage characterized by violence and a serious threat against the state’s assets, and deterioration of listed heritage.

Prosecutor-General Gonet told the justices that "there was a preponderance of evidence against the defendants," including "manuscripts, digital files, spreadsheets and exchanges of messages. Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing, reiterating his belief that the case against him is politically motivated.

The swift movement of the Supreme Court on this case suggests its high political importance. If found guilty, Bolsonaro could face a long prison sentence. While a specific trial date has not been set, the chairman of the Supreme Court panel is expected to outline the procedural framework in the coming days. Overall, this developments marks the first trial of an ex-leader accused of attempting to take power by force since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985 following two decades of military dictatorship.

Asia-Pacific - Philippines

U.S. reaffirms “ironclad” commitment to defence treaty with Philippines

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on 28 March affirmed the U.S’ unwavering commitment to a defence treaty with the Philippines and pledged to deploy additional advanced military capabilities to strengthen its deterrence against threats, including China's aggression.

The Philippines was the first stop of Hegseth’s tour of Asia, which will also include Japan. In remarks during a joint press conference in Manila, alongside Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, Hegseth said that the two partners would implement new security as part of efforts to accelerate the defence partnership, framing the US approach under President Trump as one of seeking "peace through strength." The new bilateral security initiatives include plans for bilateral training between both nations for high-end operations and deployment of the land-based anti-ship missile launcher – the so-called Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) as part of the joint large-scale Balikatan (shoulder-to-shoulder) exercises set to take place next month in the Philippines.

Hegseth's visit occurred against a backdrop of increasing tensions in the South China Sea over contending territorial claims. Standoffs have occurred lately in waters where Chinese coast guard ships often encroach into the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Hegseth’s meetings with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Marcos and Teodor took place the same day that the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines held maritime drills in the South China Sea. The drills, officially known as the Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity, took place in the waters off the coast of Scarborough Shoal. Coinciding with Hegseth’s arrival in Manila, China’s military stated that it conducted a routine patrol in the South China Sea. Furthermore, in a response to Hegseth’s statement, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Washington “to abandon the Cold War mentality, stop provoking ideological confrontation and stirring up trouble in the South China Sea, cease sowing discord, and stop being a troublemaker in the region.”

Broadly, the visit underscores the U.S strategy of bolstering alliances in the Indo-Pacific to counter China's growing influence.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a blistering speech on 27 March declaring that the era of deep economic, security and military ties with the U.S "is over," after President Donald Trump announced steep auto tariffs of 25% on imports into the United States. The two leaders later held a phone call on 28 March and promised to meet after Canada’s elections on 28 April. With the upcoming elections, Carney is keen to send a strong message to the Canadian electorate and present himself as a strong leader who will not kowtow to Trump’s bullying tactics and demands.