Five key developments in international relations this week: 07-11 Apr 2025 🔍🌍

⚔️⚔️SITREP : Sudan conflict

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) begun hearings in Sudan’s case against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on 10 April. In its case before the court, Sudan accuses the UAE of violating the 1948 Genocide Convention by supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which it alleges is committing genocide against the Masalit ethnic group in Darfur. Muawia Osman, Sudan's acting justice minister, told the court that the "ongoing genocide would not be possible without the complicity of the UAE, including the shipment of arms to the RSF". Sudan detailed alleged forms of support provided by the UAE to the RSF, including "considerable financial, political and military support," encompassing "direct funding, arms deliveries, military gear and the training of mercenaries." Sudan's legal team also referenced the U.S. State Department's determination in January 2025 that genocide was being committed in Sudan by the RSF and allied militias, bolstering their claim that the atrocities constitute genocide under Article II of the Genocide Convention.

The UAE has dismissed Sudan's accusations as "circumstantial" and lacking "credible evidence". They described Sudan's case as a "cynical communication stunt" and a "baseless PR stunt. Conflict Observatory, a US-funded monitoring group, has identified aircraft it says were used to move UAE weapons to RSF fighters. Those flights reportedly transited through Maréchal Idriss Deby international airport in Amdjarass, eastern Chad. The UAE has said those flights were intended to support a hospital in the region. Moreover, the UAE's primary legal argument for dismissal centres on its reservation to Article IX of the Genocide Convention. While ICJ rulings are legally binding, they are not enforceable. Given past cases, such as the Court’s order in 2022 for Russia to halt military operations in Ukraine, there is little to suggest a substantive outcome in Sudan’s case.

On the warfront, heavy artillery shelling by the RSF on a market in North Darfur state killed and injured at least 15 people on 10 April. On the same day, at least 20 people were killed and more than 10 others injured following shelling by the RSF Abu Shouk camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in el-Fasher, North Darfur. This comes amid the ongoing siege by the RSF on el-Fasher since May 2024, which has also seen an intensification of hostilities and violence near civilian populated areas, in addition to cutting off essential services and supplies. In a separate development, the RSF captured the capital of Um Kadada locality in North Darfur including the garrison of the SAF 24^th Infantry Brigade on 10 Apr. Um Kadada is roughly 142km to the east of el-Fasher and lies on the strategic road linking Darfur to North Kordofan and Khartoum. This win strengthens the RSF’s position in Darfur.

The capture of Um Kadada coincides with expansion of RSF’s operations into northern Sudan. On 09 April, air and artillery attacks on Al-Dabbah in Northern State and El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, killed at least 13 people and injured others. Elsewhere, on the back of its successful offensives in Khartoum, Sennar and Al Jazirah states, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) made fresh advances on 08 April in the Ombada locality, west of Omdurman, in its latest operations to capture the last RSF strongholds in the Ombada area, including taking control of the Omdurman-Bara national highway which links Khartoum to the Darfur and Kordofan regions.

The war in Sudan, which will enter its third year on 15 April, has also been characterised by widespread systematic sexual violence against women and girls. In its report released on 10 April, Amnesty International documented at least 36 cases of women and girls as young as 15 being subjected to rape, gang rape, and other forms of sexual violence by RSF forces between April 2023 and October 2024 across four Sudanese states. A UN fact-finding mission in October 2024 also found widespread sexual violence during the conflict, accusing the RSF of being behind the "large majority" of cases. UN Women has also flagged the systematic exclusion of Sudanese civilian women from peace processes and diplomatic processes, despite evidence-based research about the contribution of women in peacemaking efforts and their role in ensuring a sustainable peace.

The humanitarian situations remains grim with the UN warning of famine spreading and increasing displacement of civilians — at least 12.4 million people have been uprooted from their homes, including more than 3.3 million refugees. According to WFP, approximately half of Sudan’s population – 25 million people – is facing extreme levels of hunger.

🫱🏾‍🫲🏾 Summitry

Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit in Honduras – 09 April

Colombian President Gustavo Petro assumed the pro tempore presidency of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) on 09 April, at the 9^th summit of the regional body in Tegucigalpa, Honduras. The summit, which brought together leaders from 33 countries in the region, took place amid rising trade tensions following U.S President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on countries across the world, also affecting economies in the Latin American and Caribbean region.

The summit concluded with a joint agreement, the Declaration of Tegucigalpa, signed by 30 of the 33 member states, which called for strengthening CELAC as a mechanism for political consensus, highlighted the region as a "Zone of Peace," and rejected unilateral coercive measures, including those of a commercial nature. Argentina, Paraguay, and Nicaragua opted out of adopting the resolution, highlighting the existing divisions and differing political stances within the group.

Several leaders stressed the critical importance of unity for the region's autonomy and prosperity in the face of external pressures. Brazil's President Lula da Silva proposed increasing trade in local currencies and reactivating the Latin American Integration Association’s payment system. Colombian president, Petro, who is taking over the presidency from his Honduran counterpart, Xiomara Castro, urged deepening cooperation and enhanced multilateral initiatives especially in response to crisis situations in the region such as the Haitian crisis. Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum called for a Summit for the Economic Well-being of Latin America and the Caribbean to discuss possible joint strategies premised on based on shared prosperity and respect for our sovereignties.

Overall, the summit reflected a strong desire among many Latin American and Caribbean leaders to foster greater regional unity and collective action, particularly in response to U.S economic and immigration policies. The pursuit for regional unity and joint action is hindered by existing political divisions and divergent stances on regional issues.

💱 Global economy

EU and China consider coordinated response to U.S tariffs

Trump’s sweeping tariffs and belligerent trade policies appear to have edged Europe and China closer in search for economic opportunities that can offset the turmoil caused by the U.S President’s policies.  The calls for a reset of EU-China trade relations were echoed on 11 April during a visit by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to Beijing where he met with President Xi Jinping. Sanchez's trip to Beijing, his third in as many years, aims to forge closer economic and political ties with China amid the global fallout from Trump's tariff policy, seeking to position Spain as an interlocutor between China and the EU and to attract more Chinese investment. Sánchez described China as an "essential partner" in tackling global challenges and advocated for more balanced relations and negotiated solutions to differences.

Emphasizing the need for pragmatic cooperation, President Xi said “China and the EU must fulfil their international responsibilities, jointly safeguard the trend of economic globalization and a fair international trade environment, and jointly resist unilateral and intimidating practices.” Notably, 2025 marks the 20^th   anniversary of the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Spain, as well as the 50^th   anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and the EU. In 2024, the EU exported goods worth €213.3 billion to China and imported €517.8 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of €304.5 billion.

A further sign of the rapprochement between the EU and China was the revival of negotiations on minimum pricing of Chinese-made electric vehicles. Moreover, a few days after Trump announced his tariff regime, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EU Commission, held a phone call with Chinese Premier Li Qiang to discuss bilateral issues and the state of the global economy.

While some leaders, like Spain’s Sánchez, advocate for a reset and closer ties with China, others remain profoundly sceptical, informed by the view of China as an economic competitor and a systemic rival.  Some European diplomats are not optimistic about a genuine reset in relations, suggesting China may see the current situation as an opportunity to gain concessions from a politically divided EU without a real interest in improving ties.

In sum, while the EU and China’s shared opposition to U.S tariffs presents an opportunity for strategic cooperation in certain areas, fundamental disagreements and differing strategic priorities within the EU itself are likely to prevent a full-scale rapprochement. The current engagement seems to be driven by a mix of seeking economic opportunities, navigating U.S trade disruptions, and attempting to negotiate a more balanced and sustainable long-term relationship.

U.S-Iran nuclear talks

U.S. and Iranian officials met and spoke briefly in the first round of nuclear talks (under the Trump administration) on 12 April in Muscat, Oman. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff headed the U.S delegation, while the Iranians were led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. He was accompanied by his deputy for political affairs Majid Takht-Ravanchi, deputy for international affairs Kazem Gharibabadi, and Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei. Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi acted as chief mediator, taking messages between the delegations who were sitting in separate rooms.

A major objective for Iran in these negotiations is the lifting of U.S economic sanctions that were reimposed after the U.S withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). President Trump has warned Iran of military action if a deal is not reached to curb its nuclear programme. Tehran insists that its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes only. With respect to the talks, Iran stated its intention to reach a "fair and honourable agreement on an equal footing" that secures its national interest, according to a senior aide to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

The talks are taking place against a backdrop of heightened tensions, with the U.S amassing military assets in the region and conducting intensive strikes in Yemen against Ansar Allah, which the U.S alleges is receiving military support from Tehran. While the first round of talks was described positively by both sides, the deep mistrust, divergent objectives, and the unpredictable nature of U.S foreign policy under Trump create significant uncertainty about the prospects for a durable agreement. As both sides assess the seriousness of the other side in seeking a resolution, another round of talks is scheduled next week in Oman.

⚡Flashpoint – Horn of Africa

Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions

Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, neighbours with a historically fraught relationship punctuated by a bloody border war, are escalating rapidly. There have been signs of a military build-up in both countries, including escalation in inflammatory rhetoric from officials. Eritrea has, in recent months, called for young people to sign up for the army, while Ethiopia has reportedly deployed troops to joint border areas. Observers on the Ethiopian side have reported substantial new deployments of heavy weaponry and mechanised units in the Afar region, close to the Eritrean frontier and within striking distance of Assab.

A central driver of the escalating tensions is Ethiopia's long-held ambition to regain access to the Red Sea, lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1993. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has described this as "an existential issue" for the landlocked nation. While he has recently stated Ethiopia seeks this "peacefully via dialogue," his previous rhetoric and actions are viewed with suspicion by Eritrea.

A power struggle in Tigray, which has seen a splintering of interim TPLF administration into two factions, exacerbates these regional tensions. A dissident faction, aligned with former regional President Debretsion Gebremichael, accuses the interim government led by Getachew Reda of "selling out" Tigrayan interests and failing to uphold the 2022 peace agreement. This faction has seized key towns, including Mekelle, the regional capital, forcing interim leader Getachew Reda to retreat to Addis Ababa. Debretsion’s camp has been alleged to be colluding with Asmara, based on a convergence of interests with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki who would prefer a weakened regime in Addis in the scenario of a potential war.

Despite Abiy's assurances, the deep-seated historical grievances, coupled with current political and strategic interests, suggest that the risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains significant. Urgent and concerted diplomatic efforts, involving regional and international stakeholders, are crucial to de-escalate tensions, foster communication, and explore peaceful solutions to the underlying issues, particularly Ethiopia's maritime access needs.

Delegations from both the Congolese government and the M23 rebel group arrived in Doha, Qatar, on 10 April for talks aimed at resolving the conflict in eastern DRC. A face-to-face meeting reportedly took place on 09 April but discussions were mostly focused on establishing the framework for the negotiations. Among the rebels' demands is that Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi annul all death sentences and prosecutions of M23 members. The Congolese government delegation, primarily composed of officials from the national security services, demands that the rebels withdraw from territories it has seized. While the presence of both parties for talks is a significant development, major obstacles remain, including deep-seated mistrust, incompatibility on key demands, and the persistent issue of alleged Rwandan-backing for the M23.